Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, July 01, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                              July 01, 2015
Caution continued to weigh on the Markets for the major part of the session yesterday but the Markets ended the day with a decent gain following spurt in the last hour and half of the trade. The Markets saw a stable and modestly positive note but soon pared its opening gains to trade briefly in the negative. The Markets formed its intraday low of 8298.95 in the early minutes of the trade but soon crawled back into the positive territory. Following this, the Markets spent a major part of the session trading in a sideways trajectory with very limited gains. It was the last hour and half of the trade that the Markets saw a sharp spurt. It continued to gain strength in the last 90-minutes of the trade and went on to form the day’s high of 8378. It sustained these gains and finally settled the day at 8368.50, posting a net gain of 50.10 points or 0.60% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 01, 2015
Markets are poised at a critical as well as interesting juncture. Greek ghost has not completely gone away and at the same time, we can expect the Markets to open again on a quiet to modestly negative note and look for cues. On one hand all derivative data point towards strong possibility of the Markets continuing with its up move and on other hand, as of today, the Markets have resisted to its 200-DMA at Close level. Whatever the levels of opening, it would be critically important for the Markets to move past the 200-DMA levels in order to avoid any weakness and further capitalize on the pullback.

For today, the levels of 8368 and 8450 are immediate resistance levels. The supports come in at 8310 and 8275 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.3213 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD  also continue to remain bullish as it trades above it signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY July futures have continued to add over 11.28 lakh shares or 7.43% in Open Interest. All major stocks too have added significant amount of Open Interest. This is a clear indicator of the fact that that fresh buying has been seen yesterday in the last hour up move and this up move has not been on mere short covering. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.07 as against 1.06.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets are now attempting to confirm a bottom it formed near 7950-8000 levels. It took a support at these levels, pulled back, formed a higher bottom ( at least as of now 8195) and are now attempting to move past the 200-DMA. If the Markets manages to move past this 200-DMA levels which stands at 8368 today, and move beyond that with conviction and participation, the Markets will confirm the bottom it formed in the recent past and this would be good at least in the immediate short term for the Markets.

Overall, the odds remain more in our favour and though some amount of volatility may still continue to remain in the Markets, the Markets have more or less digested the Greed drama and in event of any weakness, it is expected to continue to range between current levels and 8200 levels. Any positive trigger will take it to confirm the bottom and move past the 200-DMA. Very selective purchases may be made but still, as of today, more liquidity too should be maintained.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.