MARKET REPORT July
01, 2015
Caution continued to weigh on the Markets for the major part
of the session yesterday but the Markets ended the day with a decent gain
following spurt in the last hour and half of the trade. The Markets saw a
stable and modestly positive note but soon pared its opening gains to trade
briefly in the negative. The Markets formed its intraday low of 8298.95 in the
early minutes of the trade but soon crawled back into the positive territory.
Following this, the Markets spent a major part of the session trading in a
sideways trajectory with very limited gains. It was the last hour and half of
the trade that the Markets saw a sharp spurt. It continued to gain strength in
the last 90-minutes of the trade and went on to form the day’s high of 8378. It
sustained these gains and finally settled the day at 8368.50, posting a net
gain of 50.10 points or 0.60% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on
the Daily Bar Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 01, 2015
Markets are poised at a critical as well as interesting
juncture. Greek ghost has not completely gone away and at the same time, we can
expect the Markets to open again on a quiet to modestly negative note and look
for cues. On one hand all derivative data point towards strong possibility of
the Markets continuing with its up move and on other hand, as of today, the
Markets have resisted to its 200-DMA at Close level. Whatever the levels of
opening, it would be critically important for the Markets to move past the
200-DMA levels in order to avoid any weakness and further capitalize on the
pullback.
For today, the levels of 8368 and 8450 are immediate
resistance levels. The supports come in at 8310 and 8275 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
57.3213 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish
divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD
also continue to remain bullish as it trades above it signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY July futures have
continued to add over 11.28 lakh shares or 7.43% in Open Interest. All major
stocks too have added significant amount of Open Interest. This is a clear
indicator of the fact that that fresh buying has been seen yesterday in the last
hour up move and this up move has not been on mere short covering. The NIFTY
PCR stands at 1.07 as against 1.06.
Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets are now attempting
to confirm a bottom it formed near 7950-8000 levels. It took a support at these
levels, pulled back, formed a higher bottom ( at least as of now 8195) and are
now attempting to move past the 200-DMA. If the Markets manages to move past
this 200-DMA levels which stands at 8368 today, and move beyond that with
conviction and participation, the Markets will confirm the bottom it formed in
the recent past and this would be good at least in the immediate short term for
the Markets.
Overall, the odds remain more in our favour and though some
amount of volatility may still continue to remain in the Markets, the Markets
have more or less digested the Greed drama and in event of any weakness, it is
expected to continue to range between current levels and 8200 levels. Any
positive trigger will take it to confirm the bottom and move past the 200-DMA.
Very selective purchases may be made but still, as of today, more liquidity too
should be maintained.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
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