Friday, June 10, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, June 10, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 10, 2016
The Markets finally gave a much expected corrective move yesterday as it ended the day with losses. Today, we can once again expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive note and look for directions. The analysis for today once again remains on similar lines as the Markets are likely to trade in a capped range. It is likely that the Markets stays in consolidation mode, trades in a capped range and may remain volatile as well.

For today, the levels of 8255 and 8310 are likely to act as immediate resistance levels for today. The supports come in at 8170 and 8135 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 64.4992 and it has moved below 70 from an overbought area. It stays neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY June futures have added 5,550 shares or 0.03% in Open Interest, keeping it virtually unchanged. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.14 as against 1.13.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have continued to display good amount of strength at higher levels. It has been consolidating since several days post break out from a triangle formation. After gaining nearly more than 550-odd points the Markets have shown no major signs of correction and has been consolidating at higher levels. Today as well, a ranged consolidation cannot be ruled out. However, at the same time, with the Markets continuing to remain in consolidation mode, it remains vulnerable to selling bouts from higher levels. If it continues to track its upward rising pattern resistance lines, any up moves will have the Markets test 8400 levels on the upside.

Overall, while keeping the analysis on the similar lines like yesterday, we reiterate that any up moves should be utilized to protect profits on existing positions. Fresh purchases may be kept very selective. The levels of 8288 have become a immediate top for the Markets and any up move shall sustain only if the Markets moves past this level. Overall, continuance of positive caution is advised for today.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331

Thursday, June 9, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, June 09, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 09, 2016
The Markets continued to trade in narrow range and track the rising pattern resistance while it ended the day with nominal gains. The Markets are likely to open today with modest gains once again but this will continue to keep our analysis on similar lines. The Markets may open modestly positive but they remain overbought and continue to remain vulnerable to corrective bouts at higher levels.

Today, the levels of 8310 and 8335 will act as immediate resistance levels for today. The supports come in lower at 8185 and 8150 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 71.9747 and it has reached its highest levels in last 14-days which is bullish. However, it trades in overbought territory and shows no bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it trades above its signal line.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have risen over 550-odd points over last three months and after breaking out on the upside once again, it has been tracking the upper rising trend line resistance. This line is drawn from lows of 7250 levels and since it is rising, the pattern resistance keeps rising every day and today, even if the Markets tests 8300 levels and above, it will still trade below this pattern resistance. This keeps the Markets vulnerable to corrective bouts at higher levels.

Overall, the overbought nature of the Markets coupled read along with overall technical structure keep the Markets due for a short term correction at any higher levels from now on. It is advised to avoid aggressive buying at higher levels and utilize all up move in protecting existing. Cautious approach at higher levels is advised for today.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, June 08, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, JUNE 08, 2016
Markets attempted to break free of the consolidation that it was witnessing over couple of days but at the same time, it has got overbought again and some signs of complacency are clearly visible on the Charts. Today, the Markets are expected to see a flat opening, but yesterday’s high point is likely to act as immediate resistance and top for the Markets until it is comprehensively breached on the upside.

For today, 8294 and 8325 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. Supports come in much lower at 8220 and 8140 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 71.6851 and it has reached its highest level in last 14-days which is bullish. However, it now trades in “overbought” territory and shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY June futures have 6.64 lakh shares or 3.16% in Open Interest. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.08 as against 1.06.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have fortified itself over last couple of days of sideways consolidation after a robust 450-odd point’s rise that it saw while it broke out of a triangle formation. After doing this, the Markets showed no signs of any correction and instead consolidated for couple of days in a narrow range. It attempted to break out of it yesterday on the upside and it continues to track its rising pattern resistance. Today, such pattern resistance lies at 8300-8325 levels.

Overall, the Markets will continue to display strength while it tracks its pattern resistance but while doing so, it should be very clearly noted that at any given point of time, the Markets will continue to remain vulnerable to selling bouts from higher levels. The very reason that the Markets trades in “overbought” territory calls for some amount of caution. Overall, while remaining cautious with each higher levels, positive outlook is advised for today.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, June 07, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 07, 2016
The Markets continued to remain in consolidation as expected and while it ended the day with minor losses, it continued to display good amount of strength as well. Today, the analysis continues to remain once again on similar lines. Today, we can once again expect the Markets to open on a positive note but at the same time, it will continue to remain vulnerable to selling bouts from higher levels. Markets shall also react to RBI Policy review wherein it is expected to keep rates unchanged.

For today, the levels of 8240 and 8275 will act as immediate resistance levels for today. The supports come in at 8170 and 8120 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 68.7100 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY June futures have shed over 2.01 lakh shares or 0.95% in Open Interest.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have been displaying great amount of strength as it has been consolidating in a capped ranged after a sharp rise of over 450-odd points. It has shown no signs of correction and has been consolidating in a very narrow range. The Markets will test its usual pattern resistance but that line is rising with each passing day thus taking the upside resistance higher. In event of any up move, the upside levels of 8300-8325 cannot be ruled out. 

Overall, the undercurrent continues to remain buoyant and the Markets will continue to display good amount of strength. Any downsides are expected to be bought and thus shorting at any levels is not advised. RBI is expected to keep the rates unchanged and any change shall be a positive surprise for the Markets. Overall, while continuing to avoid shorts, stock specific purchases may be continued to be made.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331

Monday, June 6, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, June 06, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, JUNE 06, 2016
Markets have been in state of consolidation once again since last two days. Today, we can once again expect the Markets to open on a very quiet and flat note and look for directions. A flat opening is expected and the Markets are also expected to remain under a state of consolidation while trading in a capped range and also witnessing some amount of volatility ingrained in it.

For today, the levels of 8260 and 8295 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 8205 and 8165 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 70.7959 and it has reached its highest levels in last 14-days which is bullish. However, it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence and remains in “overbought” territory. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 61.1082 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-periods which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Weekly MACD stays bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY June futures have shed over 3.26 lakh shares or 1.52% in Open Interest. The NIFTY PCR stands unchanged at 1.05.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have been in consolidation state after it broke out from a triangle formation. The Markets tested its logical measurable supports at 8200+ levels and since then, it has once again consolidated in a very tight range. Refusal of the Markets to correct after a straight rise of 450-odd points displays great underlying strength in the Markets. However, having said this, it is important to note that the Markets have a pattern resistance in vicinity of this range and in event of any up move, resistance around 8220-8245 levels cannot be ruled out.

The Credit Policy review tomorrow wherein RBI is expected to keep rates unchanged and Janet Yellen’s speech tonight which will throw light on directional bias of the Federal Reserve’s indication to raise rates will have some sentimental impact on the Markets. However, in any case, it is strongly recommend avoiding shorts in the Markets and continuing to make select purchases as secotoral and stock specific out-performance will be seen.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331