Friday, November 16, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 16, 2012
The Markets had an disappointing session yesterday, but quite on expected lines as it continued to register losses and ended the day again on moderate losses. The Markets opened lower and remained negative for the entire session. After opening on a negative note, the Markets continued to slide gradually in the first half of the session as it gave its intraday low of 5603.55, testing and breaching supports of 5630 levels. The Markets however saw some mild support coming in and recovered a bit from those levels. It finally ended the day at 5631, with net loss of 35.95 points or 0.63%. It continued to form a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
All is just not well with the Markets. The Markets are again expected to open on a flat to mildly negative note and look for directions. The opening of the Markets and its behaviour thereafter vis-à-vis the levels of 5630 would be critically important to determine if the Markets are to slip into further weakness or not. The intraday trajectory of the markets would be equally important and any dip below 5630 is likely to take the Markets further down.
For today, if the Markets opens below 5630, then 5630 and then 5700 would be resistance levels for today. Supports come in at 5605 and 5560 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 45.5531 and it is neutral as it shows no negative / positive or bullish / bearish divergence and also it does not show any failure swing. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line.
On the Candles, the A Falling Window has occurred. This usually implies continuation of bearish trend. The two candles preceding this formation were black and this makes the pattern even more bearish.
To add to this, the NIFTY future have shed over 13.86 lakh shares or 7.56% in Open Interest which very clearly signifies unwinding of long positions yesterday. Similar trend was witnessed with stock futures. NIFTY PCR stands at 1.01 as against 1.06.
We can fairly conclude that the Markets are not at all in good shape and no significant up move shall occur until the Markets moves past the levels of 5700+. Until it remains above 5630, it shall remain in a broad range and if it slips below 5630, it can certainly induce further weakness.
All and all, we continue with our advice to refrain form taking aggressive long positions and any profit on the longs should be vigilantly protected. While taking fresh positions on very selective manner, we continue to reiterate our downward bias on the Markets until it moves past the levels mentioned above.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Thursday, November 15, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 15, 2012
The short session of the Mahurat Trading remained under pressure on Tuesday as the Markets continued to reel under pressure in the entire hour and half long trading session and ended the day with moderate losses. The Markets opened on a negative note and continued to remain negative in the entire trading session. The Markets traded negative in the capped range and towards the end, slipped further to give the day’s low of 5660.35. It did not recovered at all and finally ended the day at 5666.95, posting a moderate loss of 16.75 points or 0.29%, forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, after a holiday yesterday , expect the Markets to open on a mild to moderately negative note. There is no structural strength seen on the Charts and therefore, the view on the Markets continue to remain neutral to negative with a downward bias. The levels of 5730 have again held out as resistance so far and it is likely that the Markets tests the support levels of 5630 again.
Today, the levels of 5700 and 5730 is likely to act as resistance and the levels of 5630 and 5610 are likely to act as supports.
The lead indicators continue to remain neutral to negative. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 49.7985 and it is neutral as it shows no failure swings or bullish / bearish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish again as it trades below its signal line.
In the Tuesday’s session the NIFTY Futures have shed 0.60% in Open Interest. This indicates moderate unwinding of positions in the NIFTY. Same trend has been seen with stock futures.
Overall, as we have been mentioning in our last couple of editions of Daily Market Trend Guide, no sustainable up move is likely to occur until the Markets moves past the levels of 5730 and upwards. Further, this will keep the Markets in a broad range with the support of 5630 and any breach of these levels will see the Markets getting weaker.
All and all, the Markets shall continue to trade in a capped range with downward bias until its moves past the levels mentioned. Until this happens, there remains a theoretical possibility of the Markets testing the supports of 5630 again. It is advised to continue to remain very selective in taking fresh positions as sectoral outperformance would be seen. Neutral to cautious outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Monday, November 12, 2012
MYMONEYPLANT.CO.IN WISHES YOU AND YOUR FAMILY A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 12, 2012
After opening flat and mildly positive, the session on Friday turned out expectedly negative as the Markets ended the day with losses. The Markets opened on a mildly positive note and traded in a capped range in positive territory in the first hour of the trade as it gave its intraday high of 5751.70. The Markets thereafter slipped into the red and transformed itself into falling trajectory. The Markets remained in such negative trajectory for the rest of the session as it continued to drift. The Markets went on to give the day’s low of 5677.75, while ruling below the levels of 5730. Not much recovery was seen from those lows and the Markets finally ended the day at 5686.25, posting a net loss of 52.50 points or 0.91%, forming a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, we can fairly expect a mildly negative opening again and a flat, quiet and listless trade is expected in the initial session. The Markets have breached the important support of 5630 and weakness is likely to persist until the Markets rule below this level. Therefore, the opening levels today and the intraday trajectory thereafter shall be critically important to decide the trend for today.
For today, the levels of 5730 and 5750 shall act as resistance and the levels of 5630 is likely to act as immediate support for the Markets.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 52.2008 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD has given a sell signal again and it is bearish as it now trades again below its signal line.
On the Weekly Charts, on the Candles, a potential weak signal has occurred. A Shooting Star has occurred on the Candles and if this happens during a uptrend, as in case of NIFTY, the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are getting control of the Markets and a potential top may occur resulting into immediate short term weakness. The RSI on the Weekly Charts stands neutral and MACD trades above its signal line.
The interpretation of these lead indicators on the Daily and Weekly charts can be said as neutral to negative.
On the derivative side, the NIFTY Future have added very nominal open interest of 0.16% with Friday’s decline which indicates that there are no major shorts that are created in the system.
All and all, the levels of 5730 would continue to act as immediate resistance and this is likely to keep the Markets in capped range with little volatility with downward bias. No aggressive longs should be taken until the Markets moves past these levels and high degree of caution is advised on the long side. Overall cautious approach to the Markets in this week is advised.
Consulting Technical Analyst,