Thursday, December 31, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, December 31, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                               December 31, 2015
Markets had a thoroughly disappointing session yesterday as it ended the day with losses after spending the entire first half in the sideways trajectory. The Markets saw a modestly positive opening but it formed its intraday high of 7944.55 in the early morning trade while it spent the morning session in a very capped and narrow range. Nearly entire first half was spent in the sideways trajectory as the Markets headed nowhere and remained totally directionless. It was the second half which did the undoing as the Markets suddenly witnessed selling pressure amid low volumes. It slipped and while remaining in falling trajectory, kept making gradual lows. It formed its intraday low of 7889.85 in the final minutes of the trade. No major recovery was seen and the Markets finally settled the day at 7896.25, posting a loss of 32.70 points or 0.41% while forming similar high but lower low on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2015
Markets are likely to see lacklustre opening and is likely to open on a quiet note once again. Today is the expiry of the current derivative series and apart from the jitters that we witness because of that, the session is likely to once again remain range bound and choppy and would continue to remain dominated with the rollover centric activities. The level of 50-DMA have continue to act as resistance at Close levels and it continues to remain as important level to watch out for.

For today, the levels of 7915 and 7965 will act as resistance and the supports would come in at 7870 and 7840 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.3644 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have shed over 25.34 lakh shares or 19.97% in Open Interest. January series added over 24.44 lakh shares in Open Interest. There was net reduction in net Open Interest and the NIFTY PCR stands at 0.87 as against 0.88. Rollovers have remained in line with the previous 3-months average.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have resisted at its 50-DMA levels which stand at 7915 today.  Couple of intraday penetrations were observed in previous sessions but the resistance have stood valid at Close levels. If the Markets move past this level, the next logical targets for the Markets will be the important level of 8000. This is a major pattern resistance and it also coincides with the 100-DMA. Until the Markets moves past 50-DMA, it will continue to hover with a weak under tone and the levels of 7820-7840 will act as important support zone. Any breach below this will induce some more weakness.

All and all, with the session expected to remain dominated with rollovers, not much movements are expected beyond a range. However, jitters due to rollovers cannot be ruled out. Volumes will continue to remain lower due to holidays. Overall, it is advised to remain light on overall exposure until the directional bias is set and wear a cautious outlook on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, December 30, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                              December 30, 2015
Markets had a range bound but volatile session yesterday as it ended on a flat note with negligible gains after a V-shaped recovery. The Markets saw a quiet opening and after opening on a modestly positive note, it traded in capped range. The Markets saw itself trading with limited gains in the morning but strengthened a bit to form the day’s high of 7942.15. However, the afternoon trade saw the Markets coming off from its morning gains. The Markets pared all of its gains and dipped into negative. It saw a near vertical paring of gains as it formed its day’s low of 7902.75. The second half of the session saw the Markets recovering all of its losses to trade back into positive. The Markets continued to hover in the positive trajectory and finally ended the day at 7928.95, posting a negligible gain of 3.80 points or 0.05% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2015
The Markets have ended yesterday after a V-shaped recovery and speaking purely on technical grounds, they are expected to continue with the up move. However, we are likely to see the Markets opening on a flat note and look for directions in the first half. There are chances that we may see the Markets improving as we go ahead in the session. Today, we enter into penultimate day of the expiry of the current series and the session will continue to remain dominated with rollovers centric activities.

For today, the levels of 7955 and 8005 will act as immediate resistance levels for today. The supports come in at 7920 and 7870 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.0121 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, rollovers continued as NIFTY December series shed over 24.07 lakh shares or 15.95% in Open Interest and January series added over 44.32 lakh shares or 62.59% in Open Interest. Net OI addition of over 20 lakh shares was seen and the NIFTY PCR stands at 0.88 as against 0.86.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have attempted to advance after resisting to its 50-DMA for the entire day yesterday. Next logical resistance would come in at its 8000-8010 levels which is its major pattern resistance as well as the 100-DMA of the Markets. So long as the Markets continue to trade above the important levels of 7920, we see fair chances of the Markets testing 8000 levels. Some F&O data also suggests strong support around 7920. However, any slip below 7920 will see the Markets consolidating once again in capped range.

All and all, as mentioned, so long as Markets trade above 7920, it has good amount of chances that it tests 8000 levels in a day or two. Also, even if we see some consolidation happening at current levels, it is likely to remain capped in a very narrow range. We continue to reiterate making very selective purchases while protecting profits at higher levels. Positive caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, December 29, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                December 29, 2015
Markets had a relatively stable session as it went on to advance to its 50-DMA and while resisting there, ended the day with decent gains. The Markets saw a quiet opening and soon after this, it saw an up move which saw the Markets trading with some decent 30-odd points gains. The most part of the session thereafter was seen spent in a 20-odd points range as the Markets maintained its gains and traded in sideways trajectory. It was the late second half of the session which once again saw a sharp spurt in the Markets. The Markets went on to move past moderately its 50-DMA as it formed its intraday high of 7937.20. It came off a bit from those highs and finally settled the day a notch below its 50-DMA at 7925.15, posting a decent gain of 64.10 points or 0.82% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2015
The Markets have expectedly advanced and touched its 50-DMA on expected lines. Today as well, we can fairly expect a modestly positive opening and expect the Markets to trade positive in the initial trade. However, there are also chances that the Markets may now see some consolidation setting in as it approaches yet another important pattern support which also coincides with its 100-DMA. However, there is some distance to go and some amount of consolidation cannot be ruled out.

For today, the levels of 7945 and 8000 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 7905 and 7840 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.7850 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above it signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have shed over 13.02 lakh shares or 7.94% in Open Interest and the January Series have added over 29.73 lakh shares or 72.36% in Open Interest. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.86 as against 0.83.

If we have a look at pattern analysis, the Markets have predictably advanced to its immediate logical resistance levels of 50-DMA, which is 7925.15 today. It is important to note that though the Markets went above this on intraday basis yesterday, it has closed just a notch below this and therefore, this resistance, at Close levels, continues to remain valid even today. Therefore, even with a positive opening above this level, the Close levels should be watched out for and it would be necessary for the Markets to move past this level at Close. Going further from here, in a scenario where the Markets moves past this level at Close, it will see itself testing its all important pattern resistance of 8000-level which also happens to be its 100-DMA.

The reason of some consolidation setting is that there is one minor weakness seen in the rally of over 350-odd points that we have seen over past couple of sessions. The OBL-On Balance Volume indicator has not been rising since the NIFTY levels of 7750 and this makes the rest of the pullback little weaker. However, we may continue to adopt a highly stock specific approach as sectoral out performance will continue. Cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Monday, December 28, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, December 28, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                 December 28, 2015
The Markets were as flat as it could on Thursday before long weekend as it spent a ranged session and ended the day with minor losses. The Markets did saw a modestly positive opening but formed its intraday high of 7888.75 in the early minutes of the trade. After trading briefly in the green, the Markets pared its opening gains and traded flat. The most part of the trading session was then spent in a very capped and narrow trajectory and the Markets headed nowhere during this time. It saw some weakness creeping in the second half of the session while it made its day’s low of 7835.50. Markets soon recovered these losses and finally ended the day at 7861.05, posting minor loss of 4.90 points or 0.06% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, December 28, 2015
Markets open today after a long weekend holiday following Christmas and given the technical indicators, we would continue to keep the analysis for the coming week more or less on similar lines. The Markets are expected to open flat and look for directions in the initial trade and the levels of 7800-7820 would be important to watch out for as it would be very critically important for the Markets to maintain itself above these levels. The volumes would continue to remain on lower side due to year end.

The levels of 7880 and 7925 will act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 7820 and 7770 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 52.8861 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above it signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 45.3866 and it remains neutral as well without showing any bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Weekly MACD remains bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have shed over 7.15 lakh shares or 4.18% in Open Interest. The January Series have added over 6.25 lakh shares or  17.95% in Open Interest. The Net change in OI remains very negligible and the NIFTY PCR stands unchanged at 0.83.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have attempted to confirm the reversal by giving a higher bottom after pulling back from its double bottom / 52-week low supports. After pulling back from those supports, the Markets had a intermediate consolidation and thus giving a higher bottom, attempted to move up again. Now that it has done so, the levels of 7800-7820 remain critically important as the Markets will have to maintain itself above that in order to prevent any weakness from returning once again. So long as the Markets remain above these levels, the next logical levels that we can expect are the 50-DMA levels, i.e. 7930.

All and all, though we continue to keep the analysis on the similar lines like previous week, the levels of 7800-7820 remain critical to watch out for. Also, the volumes are likely to remain lower and this may keep the Markets devoid of required depth. We may see such lower volumes in the entire week given the year end days. Over all, while continuing to make select purchases, positively cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com