Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, March 28, 2013

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                                 March 28, 2013

There was a trading holiday yesterday on occasion of Holi. On Tuesday, the Markets had a absolutely flat session as it spent the entire session trading in a range and it headed nowhere and finally ended thee day with nominal gains. The Markets opened on a moderately negative note and gave its intraday low of 5612.05 in the very early minutes of the trade. However, it then crawled back into the green and thereafter spent the entire session in a very narrow and capped range of 20-odd points as it gave its intraday high of 5655.30. The Markets moved sidewards in the entire session as it had no directional trigger and finally ended the day at 5641.60, posting a nominal gain of 7.75 points or 0.14% forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

The Markets have, so far, held on to its all important support levels of 200-DMA at Close levels and therefore, there is no technical breach as of now. The Markets are expected to open flat and today being the expiry day of the current March series, the session is likely to remain dominated with rollover centric activities. So long as the Markets remaining above its 200-DMA at Close levels, there would be no negative breach on the Charts.

For today, the levels of 200-DMA of 5624 would be the important support level to watch for. Another supports comes at 5610.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 33.5493 and it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line. 

On the derivative front, heavy rollovers were witnessed on Tuesday. Today, the activity is expected to be intense as yesterday was a trading holiday. However, there is been no major offloading that was observed.

Having said this, as mentioned earlier, so long as Markets maintain levels above of its 200-DMA at close levels, there are chances that it may rebound from these levels. However, any breach below this would make the Markets temporarily weak in the immediate short term. 

All and all, the Markets have been lacking directional triggers in the past couple of  sessions and therefore, we have been witnessing directionless movements. However, the chances of revival can be seen if the Markets do not breach the important support of 200-DMA on the downside. However, in absence of any confirmation, no aggressive buying should be done and it is advised to remain light on the positions. Continuation of cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, March 26, 2013

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                                    March 26, 2013

What seemed to  be a perfect pullback for the most part of the session, fizzled out in the later part of the session as the Markets came off over 95 points from its day’s high to end the day with modest losses. The markets opened on a positive and stronger note and gave its intraday high of 5718.40 in the early minutes of the trade. The Markets continued to trade strong for  the most part of the day in a capped range moving in a narrow band. However, in the last hour and half of the trade, the Markets suddenly pared all of  its gains and it not only went into the negative territory but went on to give the day’s low of 5624.40. It finally ended the day at 5633.85, posting a net loss of 17.50 points or 0.31% forming a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Markets are poised at a very critical juncture. Expect the Markets to open on a flat to moderately negative note following global weakness and look for directions. Intraday trajectory would be extremely important as the Markets still continue to trade above its important 200-DMA support at close levels. In case of lower opening today, it would be critical for the Markets to see that it closes not below its 200-DMA.

For today, the levels of 5620 and 5590 shall act as important supports for the Markets.

The lead indicators show that some temporary weakness is likely to continue. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 32.5352 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. However, it does not show any bullish or bearish divergences. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line. 

On the derivative front, the NIFTY futures have added in total open interest showing creation of shorts again in the system. The NIFTY PCR stands as low as 0.78 which is very near to its oversold zone.

Having said this, it is important to note that as of now, the Markets have closed above its 200-DMA which is 5621.44 today. With negative opening imminent today, it would be very important for the Markets to improve before it closes for today so that there is no breach of this support. On the other hand, in case of any continuing weakness, the Markets shall get oversold and thus even if the weakness remains, it may be limited with no breach of the filters expected.

All and all, until temporary weakness is likely to continue in the initial trade but there are also chances  that we see improvement as we go ahead into the session. Rollovers shall also dominate the day’s activities as we are into expiry week. The behaviour of the Markets near its 200-DMA would be critical to watch out for. Overall cautious outlook is continued to be advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, March 25, 2013

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                                March 25, 2013

Markets consolidated around its key levels on Friday in a volatile session as it finally ended the day on a flat note with negligible losses. The Markets opened on a positive note and after trading briefly in to the positive, it slowly drifted in the red. It kept drifting a bit in a caped range with a minor attempts of recovery in between. It gave its day’s low of 5631.80 in the mid afternoon trade. However, in the second half of the session, the Markets made a sharp recovery from its day’s low. It not only came off  its lows but went into the positive territory and also went on to give the day’s high of 5691.45. Unfortunately, the Markets did not sustain that recovery and soon came off its high again and finally ended the day at 5651.35, posting a net loss of 7.40 points or 0.13% forming a minor lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low charts.

The Markets have consolidated in last two sessions and have maintained above its key support levels. Today, expect the Markets to open on a flat to positive note and look for directions. Stability after a volatile week can be fairly expected but the intraday trajectory would continue to play a vital role in keeping Markets above its key support levels.

For today, the levels of 5640 and 5620, in the form of its 200-DMA shall continue to act as important support levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 33.6107 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. However, it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts too the RSI has reached its lowest value in last 14-weeks, which is bearish, but at the same time, it does not show any divergence on either side. The Weekly MACD continues to trade below its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY March futures has shed over 9.82 lakh shares or 6.79% in Open Interest where as April series has added over 8.36 lakh shares or 26.85% in Open Interest indicating rollover activities.

Having said this, though there can be some immediate short term weakness / volatility in the Markets, it would be very important for the Markets to trade above the levels of 5618 which is the 200-DMA of the Markets and it would be critically important for the Markets to maintain its Close levels above this. In case of any breach, it can infuse some more weakness in the Markets but at the same time, it will take the Markets nearer to its oversold zone.

All and all, though there is no breach on the Charts on the downside, the lead indicators suggests extreme caution even if the Markets trade around it key support levels. It would be imperative for the Markets to maintain those levels but at the same time, volatility just cannot be ruled out. Though selective out performance may be seen, cautious outlook is continued to be advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com