WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 THRU APR 20, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 THRU APR 20, 2018

 In our previous Weekly note, we had mentioned that we continue to remain in the 27-month long upward rising channel which is the primary uptrend. We had also expected the gains to get extended in the coming week. In line with this analysis, the Markets extended its gains in the Week that has gone by. The benchmark Index NIFTY50 ended the week gaining 149 points or 1.44% on weekly basis.

Global volatility, which was intense in the previous couple of week, has become somewhat less intense and this is likely to benefit the Markets in the coming week. Though we remain little overstretched on the Daily Charts, we expect the coming week to remain resilient to any major downsides. Some consolidation and ranged volatile moves are likely but we expect the Markets to maintain upward bias despite minor intermittent hiccups that we may see in the coming week.

The coming week will see the levels of 10565 and 10690 as immediate resistance levels. Supports come in at 10365 and 10290 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Weekly Charts is 55.1793 and it remains neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Weekly MACD has flattened its trajectory and is moving towards reporting a positive crossover. No significant formations were observed on Candles.

The pattern analysis shows that the NIFTY has attempted to move past its 20-Week Moving Average. This may bring in some short term momentum in the Markets. This will also keep the consolidation moves, if any, less damaging for the Markets.

Overall, there are no signals present on the Charts that may suggest any significant downsides to the Markets. However, NIFTY remains slightly overstretched on the Daily Charts and this may bring in some volatile consolidation. It is important to  note that once the Markets are able to navigate itself through some consolidation which seems imminent, it is likely to continue with its up move as the undercurrent continues to remain intact. We reiterate to make use of any corrective bouts that the Markets offer to make select purchases. Sector-specific out performances will be seen.

A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – shows though IT pack has continue to relatively outperform the general markets, the evident loss of momentum continues and this should be taken with a caution. Apart from this, we will see Services sector and FMCG pack continuing to relatively out-perform the general markets. Another important thing to notice is the across the board, all broader indices have shown sharp improvement in the relative momentum. Therefore, we will see components of CNX 100, 200, 500, NIFTY Next 50, NIFTY MidCap 50 and 100 pack selectively bettering their performance and relatively out-performing the Markets. This is despite the fact that these pack remain the Lagging Quadrant. No significant performance is expected from REALTY and PSU Banks. ENERGY and AUTO are expected to show scattered out-performances.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,APR 13, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,APR 13, 2018

After deliberating in the first half of the session, the NIFTY attempted to move past its 50-DMA and 200-DMA and inch higher. The Markets ended in the green for the six day in a row with the NIFTY gaining 41.50 points or 0.40%. The Markets saw a brief consolidation near the 50-DMA and the 100-DMA mark which remain in extremely close vicinity at 10413 and 10444 respectively.

As we approach the last trading day of the week, we may again see Markets opening on a quiet note. The zone of 10480-10500 zones will be important and if these are not clearly breached on the upside, the Markets still remain prone to consolidation and some profit taking bouts at higher levels. However, the undercurrent continues to remain buoyant.

The levels of 10480 and 10535 will play out as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10415 and 10365 levels.

The RSI on the Daily Chart is 58.4023 and it has marked a yet another 14-period high which is bullish. However, RSI continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. On the Candles, and engulfing bullish line occurred. This is not out rightly bearish but it certainly warrants some caution at current levels as this formation has occurred after an up move. This has potential to halt the up move temporarily and push the Markets into some consolidation.

As of now, pattern analysis suggests that NIFTY has managed to inch higher than its 50-DMA and 100-DMA and has managed to close a notch above that. However, given the present structure of the Chart, we still cannot rule out some consolidation at higher levels.

Overall, there is no denying the fact that the undercurrent remains buoyant. However, we cannot overlook the present short term formations which point towards likely consolidation happening at current levels. We see high probability of Markets witnessing some profit taking bouts at higher levels with very limited downsides. Also, the high PCR levels (Put to Call Ratio Levels) too point towards some likely pause in the up move. While expecting Markets to consolidate at higher levels, we advise vigilant protection of profits at higher levels while continuing to use downsides to make select purchases.

STOCKS TO WATCH:

Favorable technical setup is observed in stocks like KPIT, TCS, SUBEX, INFIBEAM, M&M Financial, CAMLIN FINE SCIENCES, RADICO KHAITAN, CYIENT, TATA CHEMICALS and JAI BHARAT MARUTI.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,APR 12, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,APR 12, 2018

While continuing its uptick for the fifth day in a raw, the Indian Equity Markets ended yet another day with NIFTY seeing minor gains of 14.90 points or 0.14%. Markets have exhibited extremely positive underlying intent as it recovered from the low point of the day. However, they have continued to resist to the 50-DMA and 100-DMA values which remain in extremely close vicinity of each other.

As we approach the Thursday’s trade and despite the fact that there is very evident positive undercurrent, we still feel there is a need to approach the Markets with caution. The 50-DMA and 100-DMA levels which stand at 10425 and 10440 respectively will continue to resist the Markets at Close levels.

The levels of 10440 and 10495 will act as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10380 and 10320 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 56.4564 and it has marked a yet another 14-period high which is bullish. It continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD remains bullish while it trades above its signal line. On the Candles, a hanging man occurred. With such formation occurring during an up move, it raises some caution at current levels. It has a potential to temporarily stall the up move.

While having a look at pattern analysis, though the Markets continue to remain comfortably in the primary up move, it facing short term resistance as well. The levels of 50-DMA and 100-DMA which remain in very close vicinity of each other are likely to cause short term resistance area for the Markets.

Overall, the Markets have continued to exhibit a strong undercurrent. It has continued to add Open Interest with each minor up move. However it also faces as major pattern resistance at 50-DMA and 100-DMA. Though we may not see any significant downsides but the Markets certainly remain prone to volatile profit taking bouts from higher levels. We continue to advise protecting profits at higher levels. There are higher chances that even if the Markets continue with its up move, it might face some range bound consolidation at higher levels. Positive caution is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,APR 11, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,APR 11, 2018

The Indian Markets had an yet another quiet session as the benchmark index NIFTY opened positive, remained in a capped range and ended the day with a modest gain of 22.90 points or 0.22%. The volatility remained absent except or some small movements and the session remained much more stable than expected.

As we enter Wednesday’s trade, we expect some consolidation happening and the Markets taking some breather. We are very short distance away from the 50-DMA and the 100-DMA levels which remain in the very close vicinity and we expect the Markets to take some breather at these levels. Both 50-DMA and 100-DMA stand at 10438.

Wednesday will see the levels of 10440 and 10520 levels acting as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. Supports come in lower at 10365 and 10310 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 55.7665 and it has made yet another 14-period high which is bullish. No divergence on RSI is seen against the price. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish while trading above its signal line.

If we look at pattern analysis, NIFTY has evidently broken out from a short term falling trend. It continues to remain in the 27-month long upward rising channel and the primary up trend remains intact. On the immediate short term, the NIFTY is expected to encounter resistance at the 50-DMA and the 100-DMA on the Daily Charts.

Overall, we may once again see the Markets getting a relatively stable opening and a modestly positive start. However, the Markets in general may encounter resistance at 50-DMA and 100-DMA which converge at the same level of 10438. There are chances that the NIFTY attempts to move past these levels and at the same time, faces some resistance at higher levels as well. We see some inevitable consolidation happening and this may occur in a capped range and bring some volatility as well. We recommend protecting profits at higher levels and also make select purchases with each period of consolidation that the Markets offer.

STOCKS TO WATCH:

Relatively buoyant technical set up is seen on counters like IDBI BANK, BHARTI AIRTEL, MONNET ISPAT, HDFC STANDARD LIFE, GRAPHITE INDIA, BAJAJ ELECTRICALS, RAMCO CEMENT, JUBILIENT LIFE and HEG LTD.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,APR 10, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY,APR 10, 2018

While showing resilience along with the Asian peers, the Indian Equity Markets got off to a much better start on Monday despite weak overnight closing of US Markets. In a session that remained much range bound on Monday, the NIFTY had a relatively steady session and ended up gaining 47.75 points or 0.47%.

As we approach Tuesday, we expect up move to continue. However, Markets are showing some signs of impending consolidation but despite such intermittent mild consolidation moves, the NIFTY is all likely to advance towards its 100-DMA and 50-DMA zones which remain in close vicinity of each other.

Tuesday will see the levels of 10430 and 10450 will play out as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10330 and 10275 zones.  

The RSI on the Daily Chart is 54.7432 and it has once again marked a fresh 14-period high which is bullish. RSI stays neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD is bullish while it trades above the signal line. Apart from a white body that was formed on Candles, no significant pattern was observed.

If we analyze the overall structure of the charts, the Markets are very comfortably placed in a 27-month long upward rising channel on Weekly Charts. On the Daily Charts, it has broken out from a small falling channel that it had created since beginning of 2018.

Overall, though chances of some consolidation, sooner or later, cannot be ruled out, we expect the NIFTY to continue with its advancement. We expect this upside to continue and we will see Markets taking some breather between 10430-10450 range where the 100-DMA and 50-DMA converge. We expect some consolidation happening there. Until this happens, with each move that result into consolidation or a mild corrective wave, these opportunities should be utilized to make select purchases. The underlying structures of the Markets remain stable.

STOCKS TO WATCH:

Longs were seen being added on counters like ICICI BANK, HINDALCO, BAJAJ FINSERV, ITC, AXIS BANK, STATE BANK OF INDIA, FEDERAL BANK, SUZLON, JINDAL STEEL, ONGC and ITC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,APR 09, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY,APR 09, 2018

After gaining just short of 200-points on Thursday, the NIFTY chose to consolidate on Friday and spent the session in a much capped range oscillating in a narrow 40-points range. The benchmark index ended flat gaining just 6.45 points or 0.06%.

As we approach the fresh week from Monday, we expect this consolidation to spill over on Monday. The global markets have been weak following the ongoing rhetoric over tariff war between US and China. We may face a slightly weak opening early on Monday. However, going ahead, we expect resilient from the Indian Markets and we may see very limited losses and relative outperformance as compared to other global markets. Any extended weakness will see 200-DMA playing out as extremely crucial supports.

Monday’s session will see the levels of 10365 and 10390 playing out as immediate resistance levels. Supports come in at 10275 and 10200 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 52.6210 and it has marked a fresh 14-period high which is bullish. It does not show any divergence against the price. Daily MACD stays comfortably bullish while trading above its signal line. No significant formations on Candles that can be read in the present context were observed.

The pattern analysis shows that as the NIFTY crawled back above the 10180-10200 zones, it has not only moved past the 200-DMA mark but has also crawled back above the important multiple pattern resistance area. Any consolidation or corrective move will see these zones playing out as very important support area.

Overall, global weakness is much likely to affect us as we open on Monday. At the same time, we are also likely to see resilience showing up as well. The Markets continue to trade above its major support levels and continue to remain in the overall uptrend. Any dip that the global weakness presents should be lapped up in making select purchases. The broader indices have shown evident improvement in relative momentum against the general markets and we will continue to see strong stock specific out-performances taking place. Cautiously positive outlook is advised for the day.

STOCKS TO WATCH:

Fresh long positions were seen being added in IDBI, ITC, CGPOWER, BANKINDIA, PTC, PC JEWELLER, NTPC, HCC, FEDERAL BANK, JUBILANT FOOD, TATA MOTORS and IOC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com