We have not been able to come out with edition of Daily Market Trend Guide in regular PDF Format. However, the section "Market Trend For Today" has been reproduced in text format below. Inconvenience is sincerely regretted.

It is today, that the RBI is slated to come up with Credit Policy and the Markets are again set to react to it today. After losing over 200-odd points in last two trading sessions, the Markets are again slated to open on a quiet note and look for directions. The Markets are likely to see a quiet opening and a range bound trade in the morning and would react to the RBI Announcements later on. RBI is expected to leave the key rates unchanged.

The Markets have breached the 50-DMA and therefore, the levels of 6106, which is the 100-DMA is likely to get tested and act as support. The resistance on the upside would be 6218 and 6280 levels. It would be very important for the Markets to move past the 50-DMA to avoid any structural weakness.

The RSI--Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 39.9499 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. It, however, does not show any bullish or bearish divergences. The Daily MACD too, due to the sharp fall in two days, has reported a negative crossover and now trades below its  signal line.

On the derivative front, rollovers have begun. NIFTY January futures have shed over 32.18 lakh shares or 20.28% in Open Interest whereas the February series have added over 37.69 lakh shares or 77.38% in Open Interest.

Going purely by the Charts, the Markets have breached the levels of 6218, which is the 50-DMA and this would act as resistance on the way up. It would be, therefore, very much imperative for the Markets to rise and move past that levels again in order to avoid any structural breach. On the way down, today's opening is likely to test the 100-DMA, which is 6106 and the Markets are very much likely to take support around those levels.

All and all, it is very much likely that we see a quiet opening in the beginning and a range bound trade but there are equally good chances that the Markets improves as we go ahead in the session. With RBI likely to keep the key rates unchanged any smallest trigger would see the Markets improving after taking initial support. Overall, while avoiding any major fresh positions, maintenance of liquidity and cautious outlook is advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,