Saturday, January 14, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 13, 2017

The Indian Equity Markets on Thursday continued to consolidate and at the same time maintained it’s positive and buoyant undertone as the benchmark NIFTY ended the session with a modest up tick of 26.55 points or 0.32%. Today’s analysis remains more or less once again on similar lines and we expect the upward move to continue. A stable opening is expected today and we will see the NIFTY remaining in a capped range while maintaining a positive bias. The intraday trajectory that the Markets form will remain important to watch. The NIFTY is likely to test its 100-DMA which stands at 8443 today.

For today, the level of 8445 and 8470 will act as immediate resistance level while supports will come in at 8380 and 8335 levels.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 66.7593 and it has formed a fresh 14-period high which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence.  The Daily MACD is firmly bullish and trades comfortably above the signal line. On the Candles, a white candle occurred. Though not big enough, but three white candles occurred in three previous sessions. This raises the possibility of the upward momentum continuing.

The NIFTY January futures further saw addition of over 12.90 lakh shares or 6.67% in Open Interest. This further reaffirms the strong undercurrent in the Markets.

Pattern analysis also suggests strong possibilities of the continuation of the up move. The NIFTY has now successfully broken out of the broad trading range that it had formed in previous two months. While doing so, it not only confirmed the immediate lows but also moved past and closed well above the 200-DMA resistance which stands at 8293 and it is rising upwards. Any throwback or consolidation that might occur over coming days will see the level of 200-DMA extending a strong support at Close levels.

All and all, barring some possibilities of consolidation at higher levels, we expect the up move to continue. Any correction, if any near 100-DMA levels may remain extremely range bound and in form of intermittent bouts. Apart from this, the overall technical structure of the Chart, the Pattern Analysis and further evidence from the lead indicators and the F&O data point towards strong undercurrent and buoyancy. The CNXIT will remain in focus as the bellwether TCS came out with better numbers and INFY coming out with numbers today. Overall, a positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 
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Friday, January 13, 2017

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, January 12, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, JANUARY 12, 2017
Perfectly on the analyzed lines, the Indian Equities staged a decent upsurge moving past it’s all important 200-DMA and ended the session yesterday with a decent gain of 92.05 points or 1.11%. Yesterday’s up move is significant in more than one ways. It has not only confirmed the bottoms at 7900-7920 zones by forming higher tops, but it have also further broken out from a broad trading range. Speaking purely on a technical note, we expect a positive opening and the NIFTY is likely to continue with its up move at least in the initial trade. The gain has thrown up couple of other positive technical indications as well which is all likely to aid the further up move is likely to head towards its next logical target of 8450.

For today, the levels of 8140 and 8450 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come at 8355 and 8310 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 65.3531 and it has made its fresh 14-period high which is distinctly Bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence vis-à-vis the price movement. The Daily MACD is firmly bullish while it continues to trade above its signal line. On the Candles, a rising window has occurred. This usually implies continuation of the uptrend. More so when there have been 4 rising windows in the past 50 days which makes this even more bullish.

The NIFTY January futures have added over 6.45 lakh shares or 3.45% in Open Interest. This clearly indicates that the up move that we saw in the previous sessions is supported by fresh longs.

Pattern analysis suggests couple of important things. First, it clearly confirms the current lows of the 7900-7920 zones as its immediate supports. Secondly, the NIFTY has achieved a further break out on the upside from its broad trading range that it had formed over last more than two months. Further, it has also successfully moved past the 200-DMA and closed well above it. Also, it has closed 2.7% above the upper Bollinger Band. This formation when read along with other lead indicators the upward trend has good chances to continue barring few intermittent consolidations.

Overall, from look at all of the above indicators, the patterns and the F&O data, it is very much likely that the NIFTY move upwards with its next logical targets of 8450. It would be around these levels that we might see some pause. Until this happens, we will continue to see the undercurrent remaining buoyant and corrections remaining limited to intermittent profit taking bouts. Sectors like PSUBANKS, ENERGY, FMCG, etc will see distinct outperformance over others.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 
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Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, January 11, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 11, 2017
The NIFTY put on display once again its inherent buoyancy as it ended the day with a decent gain of 52.55 points or 0.64% and at the same time, resisted to its key levels as well which we mentioned in our previous edition. The NIFTY resisted precisely at its 200-DMA and ended the day just at those levels. Today’s opening would be extremely critical for the Markets. In all probability, speaking purely on technical note, we expect the NIFTY to open above its 200-DMA and continue with its up move. The behavior of the NIFTY vis-à-vis the levels of 8286, which is the 200-DMA will be crucial to watch out for. The intraday trajectory that the NIFTY forms will be critically important to decide the trend for the day.

For today, the levels of 8290 and 8355 will remain immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports will come in at 8165 and 8110 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 59.8905 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD stays firmly bullish while trading above its signal line. A while body has occurred on the Candles. No major formations are seen on the Candles.

The NIFTY January series saw a nominal addition of 2175 shares or just 0.01% in Open Interest. This figure is too small to suggest any change in underlying sentiment.

A look at the pattern analysis clearly indicates underlying buoyancy. The NIFTY, after pulling back nearly 300-odd points after forming a Double Bottom support at 7900-7920 zones, consolidated for just a very brief period without any retracements. It moved up again and once again it remained flat at Close levels and consolidated. It is important to note that the NIFTY is tracking the 200-DMA and it would be critically important for the NIFTY to move past this level for resumption of a sustainable up move.

It is further important to note that the consolidation of NIFTY near the upper range of the broad trading zone that it has formed certainly depicts underlying buoyancy. It is very much likely that we see the NIFTY opening above the 200-DMA. However, it would be crucial for the NIFTY to remain and trade above 200-DMA. Any dip below 200-DMA will again see a ranged consolidation on the Charts. We continue to reiterate maintaining a positive outlook on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 
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Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, January 10, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, JANUARY 10, 2017
Indian Equities headed nowhere today and traded in a very narrow 25-odd point intraday range while ending the day with marginal loss of 7.75 points or 0.09%. We had mentioned in our yesterday’s edition that NIFTY is expected to consolidate and it traded very much on expected lines. Today is likely to be no different. Though we once again expect a quiet start to the Markets, we expect the Markets to consolidate and expect NIFTY to remain in a narrow  trading range with the levels of 200-DMA which stand at 8282 today continuing to act as important resistance at Close levels. Just like in the previous sessions, the NIFTY consolidating near the resistance area is a sign of positive consolidation and it makes very much evident the fact that the underlying buoyancy in expected to remain intact in the immediate short term. As expected, CNXIT consolidated its performance and out-performed in the yesterday’s session.

For today, the levels of 8280 and 8335 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports will come in at 8195 and 8150 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.2326 and it continues to remain neutral. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Candles, no significant formations are observed.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January futures have shed 19,500 shares or just 0.10% in Open Interest. This figure does not signify and major change in underlying sentiment.

While having a look at pattern analysis, it becomes evident that the NIFTY is resisting at the upper end of the broad trading range that it has formed. This range is in form of a rectangle formed after the NIFTY took support in the 7900-7920 zones and subsequently forming a Double Bottom support. Another key area of resistance just near this upper end of the range is the convergence of the 200-DMA which stands at 8282 today. This level will continue to act as area resistance to the NIFTY at Close levels. The current Bollinger Bands are 11.99 % narrower than normal and they individually do not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility.

All of the above suggest that we might see some more consolidation in the given range today. We might see the levels of 50-DMA which is 8194 acting as support to the NIFTY at Close levels. Runaway rally, as also mentioned in our yesterday’s edition, is not expected until the NIFTY moves past and closes above 200-DMA. Consolidation is expected, which is likely to be in form of range bound movement coupled with some amount of volatility and intermittent bouts. Sector churning will be evident and some select stocks will out-perform. We advise highly stock specific and selective approach to the Markets today.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 
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Monday, January 9, 2017

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, January 09, 2017

MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, JANUARY 09, 2017
In our Friday’s edition, we had mentioned theoretical chances of the NIFTY consolidating as it was yet to move past and Close above the 200-DMA.  NIFTY on Friday consolidated as it did came off from its opening lines and ended the day with a modest cut of 30 points or 0.36%. Tomorrow, we expect a quiet start to the Markets. We may see a overall stable opening but we do not expect the NIFTY to give a run-away rise. We may see some more ranged movement and consolidation. Markets will set to react to some macro numbers like WPI Inflation, November IIP, etc., and also to third quarter results like that of TCS, INFY, etc. in days to come. Overall, speaking purely on technical note, the levels of 200-DMA, i.e. 8279 will remain important levels to watch out for.

For today, the levels of 8280 and 8335 will act as important resistance levels. The supports will come in at 8210 and 8165 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.9437 and it remains neutral showing no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD stays firmly bullish as it trades above its signal line. On Candles, no significant formation has been observed.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January futures have shed 46,500 shares or nominal 0.25% in Open Interest. This figure is negligible enough not to draw any conclusions regarding any possible change in sentiment.

While we have a look at pattern analysis, two things remain clearly visible. First, the NIFTY has put the support firmly in place at 7900-7920 zones. Though it has not confirmed any reversal, it certainly has established these levels as its immediate short term support. Second, the NIFTY has formed a broad rectangle type trading range with the higher levels at 8275. Currently, the NIFTY trades near the upper range of this broad trading range. At these levels, it is encountering multiple pattern resistance. First this upper end of the trading range itself is likely to act as resistance and second; the levels of 200-DMA also converge in this area.  Both of these factors are likely to create short term resistance levels for the 
Markets.

Overall, given the above factors, it is very much likely that the NIFTY continues to show some consolidation in the immediate short term.  Corrections, if any, are likely to remain in the form of intermittent profit taking bouts. For the NIFTY to resume a sustainable rally, it would be of paramount importance for the NIFTY to move past and Close above the 200-DMA. Until this happens, we expect the NIFTY to remain in a broad trading range. While avoiding major shorts, we continue to advice making modest purchases in any corrective dips.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT 
Technical Analyst 
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member: 
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA



+91-98250-16331 
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