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Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, December 05, 2013

MARKET REPORT December 05, 2013

After spending the most part of the session in a narrow 15-odd point range, the Markets extended its losses in the second half and ended the day with modest losses. The Markets opened on a modestly negative note and spent the first half of the session with capped losses. The Markets went very briefly in the positive territory as it gave intraday high of 6209.15. However it came back into negative territory again and extended its losses in the second half of the session. It went on to give the day’s low of 6149.90 in the last hour of the trade. It saw a modest recovery from there and finally ended the day at 6160.95, posting a net loss of 40.90 points or 0.66% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets are expected to see a stronger opening today on back of positive global cues. Today, expected the Markets to open on a stronger note and look for directions. It would be critically important to see if the Markets sustain the opening gains and capitalize on it. For this, the intraday trajectory that the Markets form would be critically important as well.

Today, the levels of 6210 and 6235 would act as immediate resistance levels. The levels of 6140 and 6110 are immediate supports on Daily Charts.

The lead indicators continue to remain firmly in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.35 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences or any kind of failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain in buy mode and bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY December futures have shed 6.47 lakh shares or 3.45% in open interest. This is a factor of little concern as it shows some profit booking from higher levels. It would be very important to see that the Markets add OI in stocks as well as indices and we see fresh long positions being taken.

If we look at the pattern analysis, there is absolutely nothing wrong and the Markets have just consolidated or corrected on minor levels in last two days. The Daily MACD has reported a positive crossover 2 days back and this is a lead indicator indicating impending up move in the Markets. Today we would see a positive opening and therefore, it would be very necessary for the Markets to sustain and capitalize on such positive opening.

All and all, stronger opening is expected but at the same time, equal importance is place on sustenance of this gains. Intraday trajectory would be critically important for the Markets to capitalize on such opening. It is advised to continue to refrain from shorts and also protect profits vigilantly at higher levels. Any temporary slide should be utilized to make selective purchases. Continuance of positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

+91-98250-16331

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, December 04, 2013

MARKET REPORT December 04, 2013

The Markets consolidated yesterday on expected lines as it opened on a modestly negative note and spent the entire session in a narrow 25-odd points range and ended the day with minor losses. The Markets traded in a narrow band after opening on a modestly negative note. In the morning trade, after trading briefly in the negative, the markets moved in the positive territory for a brief time as it gave its intraday high of 6225.40. This remained for a very brief while as the Markets again moved back in the negative and then remained negative for the rest of the session. The Markets went on to give the day’s low of 6191.40. However, it recovered from those levels as well and ended the day at 6201.85, posting a minor loss of 16 points or 0.26% while forming a similar top but higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today’s market analysis remains more or less on similar lines as that of yesterday. Today, with all lead indicators in place, we would again see the Markets opening on a modestly negative note and continuing with consolidation. However, it is likely to do so with a positive bias and we would see the Markets trading in a range once again.

Today, the levels of 6235 and 6250 would act as immediate resistance on the Daily Charts. The supports exist at 6175 and 6160 levels.

The lead indicators continue to remain firmly in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.6240 and remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any kind of failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have continued to add in net open interest signifying addition in long positions across stocks and indices.

Going by this, it is very clear that the Markets are undergoing some point of consolidation but this remains with a positive bias as all lead indicators, pattern on the Chart remain firmly in place. The F&O data too supports this. Under such circumstances it is very much likely that the Markets opens modestly negative but remains firmly in place and improves as we go ahead in the session.

All and all, such consolidation period is likely to keep the markets in a narrow range. The intraday trajectory would be crucial but consolidation is likely with a positive bias. It is advised to strictly refrain from creating shorts as there is no structural weakness on the Charts. Selective purchases can be made. Overall, continuation of positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

+91-98250-16331

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, December 03, 2013

MARKET REPORT December 03, 2013

The Markets had a good session yesterday as it advanced itself for the third day in a row to end the day with decent gains. The Markets opened on a modestly positive note and the session remained more or less a range bound session. After opening modestly positive, the Markets advanced further in the morning trade as it gave its day’s high of 6228.80. Post making this high, the Markets remained more or less again in sideways trajectory. It lost some ground as it came of its intraday highs a bit in the afternoon trade but recouped its earlier levels. It spent the most part of the session in some 25-odd points trajectory after making the day’s high and finally ended the day at 6217.85, posting a net gain of 41.75 points or 0.68% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today, we can see a day of consolidation again but this consolidation is likely to be a positive one. The Markets may open on a modestly negative note but improve as we go ahead in the session. The opening levels are expected to be around its intraday support levels and we may see the Markets coming off its intraday lows as we go ahead, as indicated by lead indicators.

For today, the levels of 6245 and 6270 are immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports exist at 6190 and 6170 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 57.9146 and it has reached its highest levels in last 14-days.This is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. We had mentioned in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide that the Daily MACD is moving towards reporting a positive crossover. Today, it has reported a positive crossover and it is bullish as it now trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have gone on to add yet another 2.98 lakh shares or 1.64% in Open Interest. This goes on to signify that further fresh longs have been added.

Going by the lead indicators and the F&O data, it is pretty clear that the Markets have some more steam left to move upwards. Even going by the pattern analysis, the patterns remain intact and the Markets continue to remain in the immediate up trend. Going by all this, even if we see a modestly negative opening, it would be nothing more but a range bound consolidation with a upward bias. There would be very high chances that we may see the Markets improving as we go ahead in the session.

All and all, as mentioned above, we might see a modestly negative opening but bias certainly remains on the upside. Given this reading, it is advised to strictly refrain from entering shorts and use any temporary limited downside to make selective purchases. Positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

+91-98250-16331

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, December 02, 2013

MARKET REPORT December 02, 2013

The Markets continued to witness buoyancy on the beginning of new derivative series as it opened on a stronger note, strengthened further and remained in sideways trajectory by maintaining its gains and ending the day on a buoyant note with decent gains. The Markets opened stronger and soon went on to give its day’s high of 6182.50 in the early morning trade. Soon after that the Markets remained in sideways trajectory for the rest of the session as it fiercely maintained its gains. The Markets maintained that range and ended the day at 6176.10, posting a decent gain of 84.25 points or 1.38% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TO DAY

Today, expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive to flat note and maintain its levels at least in the initial trade. The lead indicators and the technical indicators on the Daily Chart remain firmly in place and the Markets are likely to trade and consolidate with a positive bias.

Today, the levels of 6205 and 6230 are immediate resistance on the Daily Charts and the levels of 6145 and 6110 are immediate supports.

The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 55.4546 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD trades below its signal line but its moving towards giving a positive crossover on the Daily Charts. On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 57.5727 and continues to remain neutral like on the Daily Charts. The Weekly MACD continues to remain bullish as it already trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have added over 8.71 lakh shares or 5.03% in open interest and this is certainly a positive sign as fresh additions of long positions is seen.

Going by the pattern analysis on the Daily as well as Weekly Charts, the trend remains neutral to bullish as the Markets continues to trade above all of its moving averages. Even with a short term rise and the consolidation that might follow, it would continue to trade with a positive bias so long as maintains its levels above its 50-DMA.

All and all, the Markets continue to trade with positive bias. Even if it opens flat and consolidates, the bias would remain positive as all technical factors and lead indicators remain in place. This is further supported by pattern analysis and the F&O Data. Given this reading, even if the Markets consolidate it would be a range bound consolidation and any temporary downside should be used to make fresh purchases. While shorts should be strictly avoided, overall positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

+91-98250-16331