Saturday, December 7, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, November 27, 2013

MARKET REPORT                                                                        November 27, 2013
The Markets underwent a correction, as such on expected lines after a robust gain a day before. The Markets also remained in rollover dominated activities along with correction and ended the day with losses. The Markets opened on a modestly negative note and remained in negative trajectory throughout the session. After opening modestly negative and forming a day’s high of 6112.70 in the opening minutes of the trade, the Markets transformed itself into downward falling trajectory and remained so for the rest of the session. It kept making new intraday lows with gradual decline and went on to give the day’s low of 6047.75. It finally ended the day at 6059.10, posting a net loss of 56.25 points or 0.92% while forming a lower top and mildly higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Markets lies today at a critical juncture. On one hand, we enter the penultimate day of the expiry of the current derivative series and the session would certainly remain dominated by rollover centric activities. On the other hand, the Markets have taken support at its 50-DMA at Close levels which is 6054 and it would be critically important for the Markets to remain above those levels.

For today, the levels of 6095 and 6125 would act as immediate resistance on the Daily Charts. The support would come at 6054 at Close levels and 6025 at intraday levels. Any dip below this is likely to bring in some more weakness in the Markets, though on much temporary levels.

The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 47.63 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any kind of failure swings. The daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line.

On the derivative front, hectic rollover continued as NIFTY November futures shed over 21.48 lakh shares or 17.47% in open interest while the December series added 19.13 lakh shares or 20% in open interest. Both NIFTY and market wide rollovers have remained in line with the previous month.

Going by the above, as mentioned earlier, the Markets continue to remain at a critical juncture. Apart from rollover movements that it might witness due to last two day of expiry, it would be very critically important for the Markets to remain above its 50-DMA or at least its filters to avoid any further weakness creeping in. Any dip below this, beyond the expiry is likely to bring in more weakness. As of now, the Markets continue to consolidate with no directional consensus. 

Having said this, as there is no any kind of structural breach on the Charts, creating shorts should be strictly avoided. Adequate liquidity should be maintained to protect open positions and retail activity should be little restrained until the directional consensus is clear. With no structural breach on the Charts, the consolidation continues with a upward bias. Overall, cautiously neutral outlook is advised on the Markets today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331




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