MARKET REPORT November
27, 2013
The Markets underwent a correction, as such on expected
lines after a robust gain a day before. The Markets also remained in rollover
dominated activities along with correction and ended the day with losses. The Markets
opened on a modestly negative note and remained in negative trajectory
throughout the session. After opening modestly negative and forming a day’s
high of 6112.70 in the opening minutes of the trade, the Markets transformed
itself into downward falling trajectory and remained so for the rest of the
session. It kept making new intraday lows with gradual decline and went on to
give the day’s low of 6047.75. It finally ended the day at 6059.10, posting a
net loss of 56.25 points or 0.92% while forming a lower top and mildly higher
bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
Markets lies today at a critical juncture. On one hand, we
enter the penultimate day of the expiry of the current derivative series and
the session would certainly remain dominated by rollover centric activities. On
the other hand, the Markets have taken support at its 50-DMA at Close levels
which is 6054 and it would be critically important for the Markets to remain
above those levels.
For today, the levels of 6095 and 6125 would act as
immediate resistance on the Daily Charts. The support would come at 6054 at
Close levels and 6025 at intraday levels. Any dip below this is likely to bring
in some more weakness in the Markets, though on much temporary levels.
The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The
RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 47.63 and it is neutral as it
shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any kind of failure swings. The daily
MACD continues to trade below its signal line.
On the derivative front, hectic rollover continued as NIFTY
November futures shed over 21.48 lakh shares or 17.47% in open interest while
the December series added 19.13 lakh shares or 20% in open interest. Both NIFTY
and market wide rollovers have remained in line with the previous month.
Going by the above, as mentioned earlier, the Markets
continue to remain at a critical juncture. Apart from rollover movements that
it might witness due to last two day of expiry, it would be very critically
important for the Markets to remain above its 50-DMA or at least its filters to
avoid any further weakness creeping in. Any dip below this, beyond the expiry
is likely to bring in more weakness. As of now, the Markets continue to
consolidate with no directional consensus.
Having said this, as there is no any kind of structural
breach on the Charts, creating shorts should be strictly avoided. Adequate
liquidity should be maintained to protect open positions and retail activity
should be little restrained until the directional consensus is clear. With no
structural breach on the Charts, the consolidation continues with a upward
bias. Overall, cautiously neutral outlook is advised on the Markets today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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