Gemstone Equity Research &amp; Advisory Services

+91- 70164-32277 / +91-98250-16331

Thursday, October 5, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2017

Very much on expected lines, the Indian Equities continued with their pullback as the benchmark NIFTY50 ended the day with net gains of 55.40 points or 0.56%. The NIFTY has breached the upward rising channel in the recent decline and therefore, the upward rising trend line was expected to pose resistance to the Markets. In line with this analysis, the NIFTY continued to resist to this upward rising trend though the under current remained much buoyant. Going into trade on Thursday, we continue to expect a modestly positive start but the zones of 9915-9945 will continue to pose resistance to the Markets. Once the Markets end the day above 9945 which is the 50-DMA, we would be back into the upward trading channel.

The levels of 9945 and 9980 will act as resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 9850 and 9815 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 48.9364 and continues to remain neutral showing no divergences against the Price. The Daily MACD continues to narrow its trajectory moving towards the positive crossover in coming days. No significant formations are seen on Candles.

The pattern analysis show that the NIFTY is resisting to the upward rising trend line of the rising channel formed over last couple of months. This trend line was its support when the Index was trading inside the channel. But after a negative breach, the same support is now acting as its resistance.

Though the levels of 9945 remain a critical level to watch at Close, there are higher chances that the NIFTY will be able to move past it in coming days. All the up moves have come with a solid rise in Open Interest and this may prevent major downsides and acts as a positive indicator. Banking stocks will react to the RBI Policy review wherein it kept the rates unchanged but slashed the SLR. While completely avoiding shorts, select buying may be continued while maintaining a positively cautious view on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Technical Analyst

(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member:

CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA

Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA

Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK

+91- 70164-32277 / +91-98250-16331

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2017

The Indian Equities had a buoyant session on expected lines as the benchmark NIFTY50 ended the day with net gains of 70.90 points or 0.72%. Though the session remained extremely range bound, the positive point was that it maintained its gains all throughout the day. Going into Wednesday, we expect a positive start and expect the Markets to continue with its pullback. The important point to note was the Tuesday’s intraday high. The zones of 9895-9915 are the zone where the Markets resisted and this is the area of the trend line of the rising channel that he Markets breached on the downside. Going ahead, this is likely to act as resistance and it would be important for the Markets to move past this area.

The levels of 9915 and 9940 will act as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 9820 and 9775 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 44.6515 and remains neutral showing no divergence against the price. Daily MACD is bearish as it trades below its signal line. No significant formation on Candles is observed.

Going by the pattern analysis, it is observed that the NIFTY has breached the upward rising channel on the downside and while pulling back, it has resisted to the rising trend line of that channel. So, what was support earlier is now acting as a resistance.

As mentioned above, it would be important for the Markets to move past the 9895-9915 zones in order to go back into the upward rising channel. Going on from there, the NIFTY will have 50-DMA 9945 to tackle with. However, given all this, we see that the Markets will continue to trade on positive lines with outright out-performance from select pockets. We expect the pullback to continue and unless the critical levels of 9685 is broken, all downsides should be utilized to make select purchases.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Technical Analyst

(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member:

CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA

Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA

Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK

+91- 70164-32277 / +91-98250-16331

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, OCT 03, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, OCT 03, 2017

Caution weighed heavy on Friday in the last hour and half of trade as the decent pullback in the benchmark NIFTY50 turned out to be a session with just modest gains as the Markets ended the day with gains of just 19.65 points or 0.20%. On Tuesday, the Indian Markets will begin the week after a long Weekend and is expected to start on a stable note. We expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive and stable note and is expected to continue to trade in a defined range with the levels of 9685 acting as key supports.

Tuesday will see the levels of 9850 and 9875 acting as resistance levels while supports are expected to come in at 9740 and 9685 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 38.5208 and remains neutral showing no divergences against the price. The Daily MACD is bearish while it trades below its signal line but it has flattened its trajectory. No significant formations were observed on Candles.

The pattern analysis shows that the NIFTY has taken support once again at the previous immediate low of 9685. It has pulled back once again while marking this area as a major pattern support. It now trades in a broad trading range as marked on the Charts.

It is very much evident that given the sharp corrective move from 10179 levels, the primary uptrend remains disrupted. However, it should also be noted that there are no signs of any trend reversal as well. So long as NIFTY trades above 9685 zones, it is recommended that shorts should be strictly avoided. Until the Markets catch the directional bias again, we can utilize the dips to make select purchases. Cautiously positive approach is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Technical Analyst

(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member:

CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA

Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA

Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK

+91- 70164-32277 / +91-98250-16331