Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, October 31, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                    October 30, 2014

The Markets had a very positive session as while remaining on a very favourable technical footing, the Markets ended the day with decent gains following positive cues from the US Federal Reserve as well. The Markets opened on a flat note today against hope of a positive opening but after trading in a capped range in the initial trade, the Markets transformed itself into upward rising trajectory. The Markets maintained its positive trend until late afternoon trade wherein it traded sideways while maintaining its gains. However, in the last hour of the trade, the Markets saw some more strength coming in. It moved further up and posted a fresh lime time high of 8181.55 in the late afternoon trade. Markets more or less maintained those levels but finally ended the day at 8169.20, posting a decent gain of 78.75 points or 0.97% while forming a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2014 

Friday’s session would remain very critical and also interesting as well. There are chances that the Markets may open modestly positive and may attempt to break out on the upside while making fresh lifetime highs. At the same time, if the Markets fails to give a clear breakout, we can fairly expect it to correct from higher levels and consolidate again. The behaviour of the Markets above 8181 would be critical.

The levels of 8181 and 8230 (fresh unchartered trajectory) would act as resistance. The supports would come in at 8105 and 8085 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 64.5484 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. Though it does not show any bullish or bearish divergences. The Daily MACD continues to trade bullish above its signal line. 

On the derivative front, NIFTY saw heavy rollovers on the long side as the November futures added over 43.48 lakh shares or 30.57% in Open Interest. Markets wide rollovers to remained in line on expected lines.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have pulled back after taking support on 100-DMA twice and has attempted to breakout by testing its previous lifetime highs. Overall, given this fact, until the Markets break outs above 8181 levels, it would remain in a broad trading range.

All and all, the Markets may attempt to break out and move past the levels of 8181 towards fresh lifetime highs. However, it also cannot be rule out that there are some technical possibilities of some profit taking from higher levels which can cause the Markets to once again continue to trade in a given range. Overall, any upside should be utilized to book and protect profits. Purchases should be limited and selective until the breakout gets validated and confirmed. Cautious optimism is continued to be advised.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, October 30, 2014

Owing to technical glitch, we have not been able to publish the edition of Daily Market Trend Guide in regular PDF Format. However, brief Market Forecast for the Day is reproduced below. Inconvenience caused is sincerely regretted.

Expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive note and continue with its up move in the initial trade. Being the expiry day of the current derivative series the session would remain dominated with rollover centric activities and apart of this, the Markets would also react to the details of FOMC meeting wherein the QE is widely expected to end.

Talking purely on technical terms, the Markets show all signs of continuation of up move but the above factors are likely to keep the session ingrained with volatility. Overall, with continuing sectoral outperformance, positive caution is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, October 29, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                            October 28, 2014

The Markets had an overall positive session and ended the day with modest gains but still the overall trading range continued to remain capped. The Markets opened on a positive note on expected lines but after opening positive, it gradually pared nearly all of its gains by afternoon trade. Though the Markets continued to trade positive and never dipped into the negative territory the gains remained almost negligible until afternoon trade. It was only in the second half of the session that the Markets attempted to gain strength. Markets saw some strength coming in and it not only went back to their morning highs, but also went past those levels to form a intraday high of 8037.80. Again some consolidation was seen around those levels but the Markets finally ended the day at 8027.60, posting a net gain of 35.90 points or 0.45% while forming a lower top but nearly similar bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2014 

The Markets have continued to remain in consolidation mood and have traded more or less in a capped range. However, given the technicals and this being supported by minor external factors and stable global Markets, there are chances that we see a modestly positive opening. However, the trade is more or less expected to remain within a given range. Further, tomorrow being the penultimate day of expiry of current series, rollovers would continue to dominate.

The levels of 8065 and 8090 would act as resistance and the levels of 7955 and 7910 would act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.6223 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-periods which is bullish. There are no bullish or bearish divergences that are seen as such. The Daily MACD remains bullish trading above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY October futures have shed over 23.19 lakh shares or 14.53% in Open Interest whereas the November series have added over 56.82 lakh shares or over 147.99% in Open Interest. Overall, there has been net open interest addition and therefore creation of fresh longs can fairly be assumed.

Coming to pattern analysis, as we have been mentioned in our couple of previous editions, the Markets have been trading in a broad trading range with the levels of 50-DMA expected to act as supports. Until the Markets remain above its 50-DMA, it would remain in consolidation and broad trading range with upward bias.

Overall, since the expiry is approaching and with just two sessions to go, we can also expect some amount of volatility ingrained in the Markets. Stock specific purchases can certainly be made while vigilantly protecting profits at higher levels. Overall, continuance of cautious optimism is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, October 28, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                         October 27, 2014

The Markets had a session very much on expected lines as it opened positive but ended the day on a lower note while consolidating after couple of days of gains. The Markets opened positive and in the morning trade itself formed its intraday high of 8064.40. Thereafter, the Markets pared whatever modest gains it had in the morning session to trade absolutely flat. The Markets never made any headway nor did it lose ground until most part of afternoon trade as well as it traded flat and in a extremely capped range. It was only in the late afternoon trade that the Markets pared some of its weight. It slipped litter further and went on to form the day’s low of 7985.65. Markets finally ended the day at 7991.70, posting a nominal loss of 22.85 points or 0.29% while forming a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR Tuesday, 28 October 2014

The Markets are likely to trade on similar lines and we are likely to see a session once again in a capped range with some amount of volatility. The Markets are expected to open flat and look for directions.  There are chances that it might consolidate and also remain dominated with some rollover activities. Though no sharp weakness expected but range bound session cannot be ruled out.

The levels of 8064 and 8090 would act as resistance and the levels of 7946 and 7910 are expected to act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.3025 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any kind of failure swing. The Daily MACD remains bullish while trading above its signal line. 

On the derivative front, the NIFTY October futures have shed over 9.94 lakh shares or 5.86% in Open Interest. However, this figure, if read singularly, will not be of much use  as we have expiry coming up and rollovers have already begun.

Going by pattern analysis, the Markets, as mentioned yesterday, continue to remain in broad trading range. Any downside would see the support at its 50-DMA. So long as Markets trade above 50-DMA, it would just consolidate in a capped range with upward bias. Only a dip below its 50-DMA would induce some short term weakness in the Markets.

Overall, until the Markets consolidates and does not show a clear directional bias, it is strongly advised to use any up moves primarily for protecting profits at higher levels. Purchases should be made, but only stock / sector specific with high vigilance at higher levels. Overall, with the Markets likely to have sideways directional bias, only stock specific and cautiously optimistic approach is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, October 27, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                   October 23, 2014

The Markets traded for a  Mahurat session on Thursday, 23^rd of October for an hour and spent the hour of the trade on expected lines. The Markets saw a positive opening and after opening in the positive, the Markets traded for entire hour in a sideways trajectory. In the first quarter of the hour of trade, the  Markets touched the day’s high of 8031.75. Thereafter, after spending the rest of the time in a sideways trajectory, it came off a bit from those levels. The Markets finally ended the day at 8014.55, posting a net gain of 18.65 points or 0.23% while forming yet another higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2014 

The Markets have formed minor gaps in the previous two sessions and this may act in either way so far as Markets performance is concerned. It can either lend technical strength to the Markets, or may cause the Markets to consolidate in order to fill those gaps. However, with the global markets stable, we can expect a positive opening in the Markets initially but at the same time cannot rule out the possibility of some consolidation in immediate short term.

The levels of 8045 and 8080 would act as resistance and the levels of 7974 and 7940 would act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.0749 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. Though it does not show any bullish or bearish divergences. The Daily MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line. A rising window occurred  (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow).  This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend.  There have been 11 rising windows in the last 50 candles--this makes the current rising window even more bullish. However, the formation of such candle can be attributed to a very short session of trade. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 64.2845 and it remains neutral without showing any bullish or bearish divergences or any failure swing. The Weekly MACD remains bearish while trading below its signal line. 

On the derivative front, the NIFTY October futures have shed over 1.47 lakh shares or 0.86% in Open Interest. In the coming week, this standalone figure would be of little use as it would be a expiry week and rollovers would begin across segments.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets continue to remain in a broad trading range. It has taken support on 100-DMA twice and on Thursday, also attempted to move past the levels of 50-DMA. In event of any consolidation, the levels of 50-DMA should act as support at Close. Reading the Daily Charts along with the Weekly Charts, there are fair chances that the Markets continue to remain in a broad trading range while consolidating with some amount of volatility ingrained in it.

Overall, Markets may witness some ranged movement and might also see some profit taking from higher levels. Any up move should be continued to be utilized to protect profits. Stock specific purchases may be made as secotoral rotation and out performance would continue. Positive outlook with a tinge of caution is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com