Friday, January 1, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, January 01, 2016

MARKET REPORT                                                                                    January 01, 2016
What had remained a lackluster session for the first half on expected lines, turned out to be the one with decent gains as the Market ended the series as well as the year on a positive note. The Markets saw a quiet opening and after trading positive for a brief time slipped into the negative while it formed a day’s low of  7891.15. Though the Markets recovered quickly to trade back into positive, it traded with very limited gains. The most part of the first half of the session was spent in a sideways trajectory while it headed nowhere. The late afternoon trade saw some strength coming in as it attempted to fortify its modest gains. The Markets saw itself moving past its morning highs. After deliberating for a brief time, it became even stronger while it formed its day’s high at 7955.55. It came off a bit from those levels and finally settled the day at 7946.35, posting a decent gain of 50.10 points or 0.63% while forming a higher top but similar bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 01, 2016
The Markets are expected to ring in to the New Year on a little subdued note. After ending the day on the high point of the day yesterday, we are expected to see a modestly negative opening today and the Markets are expected to remain little subdued and consolidate in a range. The volumes too are expected to be little lower and the overall range that we can expect would be broad 7900-7980 levels.

For today, the levels of 7960 and 8000 are expected to act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports would come in at 7910 and 7880 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.6124 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative side, the rollovers remained decent and quite in line with its past3-month average. The NIFTY January series added over 46.49 lakh shares or 32.45% of Open Interest. There has been net addition in the OI following rollovers indicating long bias in the Markets.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have been oscillating in a broad 100-odd point range of 7840-7940 and while doing this, it has been crisscrossing its 50-DMA in the process. In event of any down side, the Markets have supports at 7880. Any up move will see the Markets testing its next very important pattern support of 100-DMA which is 7987 and all important pattern resistance of 8000. Going by the overall structure of the Charts, Markets will fully confirm their bottom only after it moves past these levels. Until this happens, we will continue to see the Markets consolidating and oscillating in a broad given range.

Overall, there has been some air of caution in the Markets but the undertone continues to have a bullish bias. However, fresh and new sustainable up moves shall come only beyond 8000-levels and until this happens, we continue to reiterate to continue to adopt very selective approach in the Markets. While continuing to vigilantly protect profits at higher levels, continuance of cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, December 31, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                               December 31, 2015
Markets had a thoroughly disappointing session yesterday as it ended the day with losses after spending the entire first half in the sideways trajectory. The Markets saw a modestly positive opening but it formed its intraday high of 7944.55 in the early morning trade while it spent the morning session in a very capped and narrow range. Nearly entire first half was spent in the sideways trajectory as the Markets headed nowhere and remained totally directionless. It was the second half which did the undoing as the Markets suddenly witnessed selling pressure amid low volumes. It slipped and while remaining in falling trajectory, kept making gradual lows. It formed its intraday low of 7889.85 in the final minutes of the trade. No major recovery was seen and the Markets finally settled the day at 7896.25, posting a loss of 32.70 points or 0.41% while forming similar high but lower low on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2015
Markets are likely to see lacklustre opening and is likely to open on a quiet note once again. Today is the expiry of the current derivative series and apart from the jitters that we witness because of that, the session is likely to once again remain range bound and choppy and would continue to remain dominated with the rollover centric activities. The level of 50-DMA have continue to act as resistance at Close levels and it continues to remain as important level to watch out for.

For today, the levels of 7915 and 7965 will act as resistance and the supports would come in at 7870 and 7840 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.3644 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have shed over 25.34 lakh shares or 19.97% in Open Interest. January series added over 24.44 lakh shares in Open Interest. There was net reduction in net Open Interest and the NIFTY PCR stands at 0.87 as against 0.88. Rollovers have remained in line with the previous 3-months average.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have resisted at its 50-DMA levels which stand at 7915 today.  Couple of intraday penetrations were observed in previous sessions but the resistance have stood valid at Close levels. If the Markets move past this level, the next logical targets for the Markets will be the important level of 8000. This is a major pattern resistance and it also coincides with the 100-DMA. Until the Markets moves past 50-DMA, it will continue to hover with a weak under tone and the levels of 7820-7840 will act as important support zone. Any breach below this will induce some more weakness.

All and all, with the session expected to remain dominated with rollovers, not much movements are expected beyond a range. However, jitters due to rollovers cannot be ruled out. Volumes will continue to remain lower due to holidays. Overall, it is advised to remain light on overall exposure until the directional bias is set and wear a cautious outlook on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, December 30, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                              December 30, 2015
Markets had a range bound but volatile session yesterday as it ended on a flat note with negligible gains after a V-shaped recovery. The Markets saw a quiet opening and after opening on a modestly positive note, it traded in capped range. The Markets saw itself trading with limited gains in the morning but strengthened a bit to form the day’s high of 7942.15. However, the afternoon trade saw the Markets coming off from its morning gains. The Markets pared all of its gains and dipped into negative. It saw a near vertical paring of gains as it formed its day’s low of 7902.75. The second half of the session saw the Markets recovering all of its losses to trade back into positive. The Markets continued to hover in the positive trajectory and finally ended the day at 7928.95, posting a negligible gain of 3.80 points or 0.05% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2015
The Markets have ended yesterday after a V-shaped recovery and speaking purely on technical grounds, they are expected to continue with the up move. However, we are likely to see the Markets opening on a flat note and look for directions in the first half. There are chances that we may see the Markets improving as we go ahead in the session. Today, we enter into penultimate day of the expiry of the current series and the session will continue to remain dominated with rollovers centric activities.

For today, the levels of 7955 and 8005 will act as immediate resistance levels for today. The supports come in at 7920 and 7870 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.0121 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, rollovers continued as NIFTY December series shed over 24.07 lakh shares or 15.95% in Open Interest and January series added over 44.32 lakh shares or 62.59% in Open Interest. Net OI addition of over 20 lakh shares was seen and the NIFTY PCR stands at 0.88 as against 0.86.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have attempted to advance after resisting to its 50-DMA for the entire day yesterday. Next logical resistance would come in at its 8000-8010 levels which is its major pattern resistance as well as the 100-DMA of the Markets. So long as the Markets continue to trade above the important levels of 7920, we see fair chances of the Markets testing 8000 levels. Some F&O data also suggests strong support around 7920. However, any slip below 7920 will see the Markets consolidating once again in capped range.

All and all, as mentioned, so long as Markets trade above 7920, it has good amount of chances that it tests 8000 levels in a day or two. Also, even if we see some consolidation happening at current levels, it is likely to remain capped in a very narrow range. We continue to reiterate making very selective purchases while protecting profits at higher levels. Positive caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, December 29, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                December 29, 2015
Markets had a relatively stable session as it went on to advance to its 50-DMA and while resisting there, ended the day with decent gains. The Markets saw a quiet opening and soon after this, it saw an up move which saw the Markets trading with some decent 30-odd points gains. The most part of the session thereafter was seen spent in a 20-odd points range as the Markets maintained its gains and traded in sideways trajectory. It was the late second half of the session which once again saw a sharp spurt in the Markets. The Markets went on to move past moderately its 50-DMA as it formed its intraday high of 7937.20. It came off a bit from those highs and finally settled the day a notch below its 50-DMA at 7925.15, posting a decent gain of 64.10 points or 0.82% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2015
The Markets have expectedly advanced and touched its 50-DMA on expected lines. Today as well, we can fairly expect a modestly positive opening and expect the Markets to trade positive in the initial trade. However, there are also chances that the Markets may now see some consolidation setting in as it approaches yet another important pattern support which also coincides with its 100-DMA. However, there is some distance to go and some amount of consolidation cannot be ruled out.

For today, the levels of 7945 and 8000 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 7905 and 7840 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.7850 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above it signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have shed over 13.02 lakh shares or 7.94% in Open Interest and the January Series have added over 29.73 lakh shares or 72.36% in Open Interest. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.86 as against 0.83.

If we have a look at pattern analysis, the Markets have predictably advanced to its immediate logical resistance levels of 50-DMA, which is 7925.15 today. It is important to note that though the Markets went above this on intraday basis yesterday, it has closed just a notch below this and therefore, this resistance, at Close levels, continues to remain valid even today. Therefore, even with a positive opening above this level, the Close levels should be watched out for and it would be necessary for the Markets to move past this level at Close. Going further from here, in a scenario where the Markets moves past this level at Close, it will see itself testing its all important pattern resistance of 8000-level which also happens to be its 100-DMA.

The reason of some consolidation setting is that there is one minor weakness seen in the rally of over 350-odd points that we have seen over past couple of sessions. The OBL-On Balance Volume indicator has not been rising since the NIFTY levels of 7750 and this makes the rest of the pullback little weaker. However, we may continue to adopt a highly stock specific approach as sectoral out performance will continue. Cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com