Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, August 14, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                              August 14, 2014

The Markets had a volatile session wherein it swung in either direction during the trading session but finally managed to end the day with nominal gains. The Markets opened on a quiet note and soon perked up in the morning trade to form the day’s high of 7757.10. However, in the late morning trade, the Markets pared these morning gains to trade flat. After trading with very limited gains, the Markets gave up further in the afternoon trade as it slipped into the red and further went on to form the day’s low of 7695.70.  Again, after trading with limited and capped losses, the Markets saw some recovery from lower levels. It recovered all of its losses and went again in the positive territory. It finally managed to end the day at 7739.55, posting a nominal gain of 12.50 points or 0.16% while continuing to form higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKT TREND FOR TODAY

Today, we are once again set to see a quiet opening. The analysis for today remains more or less again on similar lines. The Markets continue to consolidate at higher levels on declining volumes and it would be critical to see if they are able to advance their pullback. The intraday trajectory and the volumes would continue to play a critical role in determining trend in coming days. We have short trading week as tomorrow would be a trading holiday on account of Independence Day.

The levels of 7770 and 7815 would act as resistance were as supports exist at 7670 and 7630 levels on the lower side.

The RSI on the Daily Chart stands at 55.3610 and it remains neutral with no bullish or bearish divergences or any failure swings. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line. 

On the derivative front, NIFTY August futures have added over 12.75 lakh shares or 9.92% in open interest. This is relatively a big addition in open interest given the short trading range that we have had yesterday. 

The pattern analysis continues to show the markets continuing with its pullback within the broadening formation. Given the OI addition during the pullback, the Markets may continue to display some more strength however volumes continue to remain the grey area. Given this character of the  Markets, the Markets may see some more advance but at the same time profit taking from higher levels just cannot be ruled out any time.

Overall, it is required to approach the markets with caution. The relatively lower volumes make any good pullbacks susceptible to profit taking from higher levels and this is what we require to guard ourselves against. Given this, it is advised to continue to approach the markets with cautious outlook while remaining heavily stock specific so far as purchases are concerned. 

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, August 13, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                  August 13, 2014

The Markets had a extremely buoyant pullback yesterday as it saw a gap up opening, strengthened further in the second half of the session and ended the day with decent gains though volumes continued to remain a concern. Following favourable cues, the Markets saw a decent nearly gap up opening yesterday. After opening in such manner, the Markets saw steady progress in the session as it remained in capped sideways range with virtually no volatility. In the second half of the session the Markets perked up further. It went on to form the day’s high of 7735.75. After hovering around those levels, it finally ended the day at 7727.05, posting a decent gain of 101.10 points or 1.33% while forming a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today, the Markets are expected to take some breather from the up moves that it has been witnessing since last two days. The Markets are expected today to open on a quiet and modestly negative note and look for directions. There are chances that the Markets begin to consolidate again from higher levels here. Intraday trajectory and volumes would continue to play critical role in directing the trend today.

For today, the levels of 7760 and 7815 would act as immediate resistance. The supports would come in at 7650 and 7620 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.6491 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any kind of failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line. 

On the derivative front, the NIFTY August futures have added over 3.43 lakh shares or 2.74% in Open Interest. This shows some more addition of fresh longs in the system.

Continuing with the pattern analysis, the Markets have seen a decent technical pullback after breaching its 50-DMA, but not breaching its filter. While doing so, the pullback has been witnessed with relatively lower volumes. The Markets may see some consolidation again from these levels while remaining in the broadening formation on the Daily Charts.

All and all, we continue to advice on similar lines as that of yesterday. Any pullbacks witnessed should be utilized more on booking and protecting profits. More emphasis should be laid on protecting profits at higher levels than making new purchases which should be limited and extremely selective. While preserving liquidity, cautious optimism is continued to be advised.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, August 12, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                        August 12, 2014

The Markets had a stable session yesterday wherein it opened on a positive note, maintained its gains and ended the day with decent gains. The Markets saw a gap up opening yesterday as it saw some 50-55 odd points of opening gains. Post this opening, the session saw a very stable trade wherein the Markets traded in a 20-odd points range in a sideways manner with virtually no volatility at all in any directions. While Markets maintained its gains throughout the session, it saw some more strength coming in the last half an hour of trade as it gave its day’s high of 7635.55. These levels were maintained as such and the Markets finally ended the day at 7625.95, posting a decent gain of 57.40 points or 0.76% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets have pullback after remaining “within” the filters of its 50-DMA and have avoided a breach as of now. Today, expect the Markets to open on a positive note once again and trade in positive at least in the initial trade. Volumes would remain critical as the technical pullbacks require volume to sustain. There are chances that the Markets see some profit taking at higher levels. With today’s opening, the “gap” that was created two days back would be filled up.

For today, the levels of 7670 and 7715 would act as immediate resistance on the Daily Charts. The supports exist at 7600 and 7540 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 48.4781 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY August futures have added near 3.12 lakh shares or 2.56% in Open Interest which signifies some fresh longs have been initiated yesterday.

Going by the pattern analysis, the Markets still continues to remaining in overall Broadening formation. However, what we saw yesterday and what we will see today would be technical pullbacks and the levels of 50-DMA would continue to hold as support as it has not been broken as yet. However, the Markets are not completely out of woods and it would be critically important to have volumes for the technical pullbacks to sustain. The possibility of the profit taking coming in again from higher levels just cannot be ruled out.

Overall, once again a positive and stable opening is set to happen and it would be critically important to see if the Markets capitalize on this opening. Any strong up move that we witness should be utilized to book and protect profits at higher levels. Fresh purchases may be made but should be limited and more emphasis should be laid on protecting profits. Sectoral stock specific out performance would continue. Overall, cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, August 11, 2014

MARKET REPORTB                                                                                           August 11, 2014

The Markets had a corrective session on Friday wherein it saw a nearly gap down opening which weakened further as the Markets ended the day with losses. The Markets saw a negative gap down opening and opened nearly 55-odd points lower than its previous close. The session saw the Markets moving in a nearly 25-odd points range and it continued to drift lower and showed virtually no signs of recovering. While trading in the 25-odd points after opening gap down, the Markets formed its intraday low of 7540.10 in the late afternoon trade. While continuing to remain below its 50-DMA post opening, the Markets finally ended the day at 7568.55 after minor recovery with net loss of 80.70 points or 1.06% while forming a sharply lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY       

Today, expect a positive opening in the Markets as the Markets are expected to witness a technical pullback. The session is likely to see positive opening and the Markets would trade positive at least in the initial trade. Post opening it would be critically important to see if the Markets capitalize on its positive opening. Its intraday trajectory and its behaviour vis-à-vis the levels of 50-DMA would be crucial for coming days.

For today, the levels of 7610 and 7645 would act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports exist at 7530 and 7480 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 44.4964 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-periods which is bearish. However, it does not show any bullish or bearish divergences. The Daily MACD remains bearish as it trades below its signal line. On the Weekly charts as well, the RSI is 63.2534 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-weeks which is bearish. Further, RSI has set a new 14-week low whereas NIFTY has not yet and this is clear bearish divergence. The Weekly MACD however trades above its signal line and its currently bullish.

On the derivative front, NIFTY August futures have shed over 8.89 lakh shares or 6.79% in Open Interest. The reduction in open interest along with the fall clearly indicates unwinding of open long positions in the Markets.

Going by the pattern analysis, the Markets continues to remain in overall reversal pattern. The Friday’s fall has seen a gap being created which might get filled up in today’s positive trade. However, this pattern, read along with lead indicators and further read along with F&O data tilts the bias towards downside.

All and all, good stable positive opening is expected and we might see a technical pullback rally to day, at least in the initial trade. This up move should be utilized in protecting profits on existing positions and fresh purchases should be made highly selectively. While protecting positions at higher levels and maintaining moderate leverage, positive caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com