Friday, October 19, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY October 19, 2012
Contrary to expectations, the Markets saw a very buoyant session yesterday as after opening and trading briefly into the red, the Markets saw a decent spurt and ended the day with decent gains. The Markets opened on a mildly negative note and gave its intraday low of 5650.55 in the early morning trade. Thereafter, after briefly trading into the red, the Markets saw a very sharp rally and remained in upward rising trajectory until the end of the session. It went on to give the day’s high of 5722.50 and finally ended the day at 5718.20, posting a net gain of 58.45 points or 1.03%. It has formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
For today, expect the Markets to open on a mildly negative to flat note and consolidate in the early trade. Much would continue to depend upon the intraday trajectory that the Markets would form to see if the Markets consolidates or continue with the up move as it is still in a broad trading range with no breakout on the upside.
The levels of 5730 and 5790 shall act as immediate resistance levels and the levels of 5630 shall continue to act as major support levels for the Markets.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 60.4124 and it is neutral as it does not show any bearish or bullish divergences or any failure swings. The MACD still continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.
The NIFTY Futures have shown minor addition of Open Interest and the NIFTY PCR stands at 1.07 as against 1.
Going by the pattern analysis, the Markets, after making a high of 5807, has been consolidating in a broad trading range of approximately 170 points with the levels of 5630 acting as the lower band and a important support. Therefore, for any sustainable up move to occur, the Markets will have to move past and sustain above the levels of 5810. Until this happens, any rise in the Markets shall open remain to consolidation or correction and the sustainability would remain under question.
All and all, the Markets still continue to remain in broad trading range and it is yet to give any positive breakout. Until this happens, we will see the Markets trading in broad range and will also see good amount of volatility ingrained in it. While remaining selective on fresh positions, we continue to advise to have very cautious approach to the Markets today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Thursday, October 18, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY October 18, 2012
The Markets had a relatively disappointing session as it opened strong on positive global cues, but technical took over later as it pared all of its gains to end the day with just minor gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and made it intraday high of 5684.35 in the very early seconds of the trade. The Markets converted itself into falling trajectory after that and kept paring its opening gains gradually. It later dipped into negative and went on to give the day’s low of 5633.90 and finally ended the day at 5660.25, posting a minor gain of 12.25 points or 0.22%. It made a lower top and similar bottom on the Daily High Low charts.
Today’s analysis would remain more or less similar to that of yesterday. The support levels of 5630 has held out again and we can see positive opening in the Markets today, but intraday trajectory would be crucial again like yesterday to determine the trend for the Markets. It would be critical to see that after opening positive, the Markets sustains the opening gains and stays afloat the levels of 5630.
For today, the levels of 5675 and 5710 shall act as immediate resistance levels and the levels of 5630 would act as immediate and important support.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 55.3894 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line and is bearish.
As the Markets have been doing in last couple of session, the NIFTY Futures have continued to shed Open Interest. It shed 2.88 lakh shares or 1.20% in Open Interest. This continues to signify that there has been long unwinding in the Markets.
Going by the above, it would be extremely necessary and critical for the Markets to see that it remains above the levels of 5630 in positive trajectory. Any dip below 5630 would induce further weakness in the Markets. However, the pattern analysis and F&O statistics show larger possibility of Markets either trading in a range, or getting bit weaker.
All and all, even with some intermittent bouts, the Markets are not completely out of woods. Intermittent pullbacks might be seen, but sustainability would depend on if that is short covering or adding of fresh longs. While taking long positions very selectively, continuation of cautious approach is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY October 17, 2012
Completely in line of the analysis carried out in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide, the Markets fizzled out and continued with the correction in the second half of the session after a bullish start to the session. The Markets opened on a positive note and gave its intraday high of 5714 in the early minutes of the trade. The Markets, though remained positive in the morning session, traded in absolutely capped range. Thereafter, in the second half, after attempting a rise, the Markets suddenly saw selling pressure creeping. It not only dipped into the red, but went on to give the day’s low of 5635.60. The levels of 5630 held out as support but the Markets ended the day at 5648, still posting a net loss of 39.25 points or 0.69% forming a higher top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low charts.
Today, expect a positive opening in the Markets. Today’s there would be a tussle between the domestic technical charts, F&O statistics and pattern analysis which suggest continuation of the corrective trend and positive global factors on the other side which shall induce positive opening. The most critical factor would be intraday trend that the Markets forms post opening and it would be crucial to see if the Markets sustains its positive opening and capitalizes on it.
The levels of 5700-5725 shall continue to act as immediate resistances and the levels of 5630 shall continue to act as critical support.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.2604 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line.
On the Candles, an engulfing bearish line has occurred. The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend, which is the case with NIFTY and as a result of which Markets may see continuing weakness.
Further to this, NIFTY Futures have continued to shed over 4 lakh shares in Open Interest. The NIFTY Futures have shed Open Interest for five straight sessions in a row. Still further to this, most of the stock futures have also reported shedding of Open Interest. All this signifies continuation of long unwinding in the Markets.
However, on the other hand, we will see a decently positive opening in the Markets. However, there are chances that the Markets may struggle on the upside and may pare its opening gains. Any continuation of the up move shall be short covering unless the Markets breach 5750 on the upside. Until then, without getting carried away, continuing cautious outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY October 16, 2012
Markets continued to consolidate and spent the session in a range bound but bit volatile trade as it managed to end the day with moderate gains. The Markets opened negative and spent the first half of the trade with capped losses and traded in a range as it gave its intraday low of 5651.05. However, the Markets saw sharp short covering led rally in the second half as the Markets traded in the positive territory while giving day’s high of 5693.70. However, unable to sustain those levels, the Markets pared some of its gains again, but finally managed to end the day at 5687.25, posting a moderate gain of 11.20 points or 0.20% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, again expect a modestly quiet opening in the Markets and the Markets are expected to again trade in a range. However, F&O statistics and the pattern analysis of the Markets suggests that the Markets are likely to remain in correction mode for some more time. However, it would still be important to watch intraday trajectory and the behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis its important support levels of 5630.
For today, the levels of 5630 shall continue to act as important support level.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 58.6813 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line.
On the Candles, engulfing bullish pattern has occurred. If this occurs during an uptrend, which is the case with NIFTY, it may be last engulfing top which indicates a potential top formation on the Charts. It may turn the Markets weak, but this is a potential formation, and needs confirmation today.
Having said this, the NIFTY too has continued to shed Open Interest as it has been doing in last couple of session.
All and all, there are bright chances, as per Pattern Analysis , other indicators and formations and the F&O statistics that the Markets may continue to remain in correction / consolidation mode for some more time. The levels of 5630 would be major support level and any downward breach will see further weakness creeping in. While avoiding aggressive positions, continuance of cautious outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,