Friday, May 25, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,MAY 25, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,MAY 25, 2018


Though the Markets were expected to attempt to find some stability, the session remained much contrary to what was expected on Thursday. After a tepid start and losing ground in the initial trade, the NIFTY rebounded sharply and nearly tested the 100-DMA. The benchmark Index ended the day gaining 83.50 points or 0.80%.
If we draw a conclusion with a technical angle, the NIFTY has defended the 50-DMA levels at Close which stand at 10471.60. Stepping into Friday’s trade, we expect this attempt of an pullback to continue. However, in any case, the 100-DMA levels of 10538 still remain a concern and we cannot take NIFTY as completely out of the woods as yet.
Friday is likely to see the levels of 10538 and 10595 acting as immediate resistance area. Supports come lower at 10470 and 10380 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 44.16 and it remains neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bearish while trading below its signal line. It has started to narrow its trajectory. On the Candles, a strong bullish candle emerged. It has emerged near the support area of 50-DMA and therefore it holds some significance.
The pattern analysis throws up an interesting picture. The 50-DMA rule below the 100-DMA and this indicates likely continuation of short term weakness. The NIFTY has pulled back from near the 50-DMA and this has validated 50-DMA as support for the immediate short term. However, it has still resisted to the 100-DMA mark which stand at 10538.
Overall, again the level of 10538, which is the 100-DMA has come into play again. Though a quiet start is expected and some follow up move may still be seen, the NIFTY can still find resistance at Close levels at 100-DMA. Any fresh sustainable up move shall occur only after the NIFTY moves past and closes above the mentioned level. Until this happen, theoretically speaking, the Markets still remain susceptible to selling pressure at higher levels.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Long positions were seen being built in stocks like BHARTI AIRTEL, STATE BANK, JSW STEEL, PFC, NCC, IDEA, SUN PHARMA, DLF, POWER GRID, KPIT, INFOSYS, ICICI BANK and ITC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com


Thursday, May 24, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,MAY 24, 2018


MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,MAY 24, 2018
The session on Wednesday remained damaging on technical terms for the Indian Equity markets. The NIFTY resumed its losing streak after taking a breather for a day and ended the day losing 106.35 points or 1.01%. Besides anything else, it was the confirmation of the breach of 100-DMA which was damaging. After spending nearly first half of the session just below the 100-DMA of 10538, the Index slipped and went on to even breach the 50-DMA level of 10469.
All is not well with the Markets as we step into Thursday’s trade. Though we expect a quiet start to the trade again, we might see some weakness persisting for some more time. The zones of 10380, which is a major 27-month long trend line support and the 10330 mark which is the 200-DMA now remains the sacrosanct support for the Markets.
Given the weakness on some of the indicators, it there are chances that the Markets may test these support areas before it gets oversold. The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 37.19 and it has marked yet another 14-period low which is bearish. The Daily MACD remains bearish while trading below its signal line. A big black candle emerged. The emergence of such candle near the important resistance area of 100-DMA signifies the credibility of the resistance area.
The resistance for any kind of up move remains at 10470 and 10538 levels with supports coming in at 10380 and 10330 levels
Pattern analysis confirms the breach of the 100-DMA levels on the Daily Charts. With the 50-DMA trading below the 100-DMA mark, and with the NIFTY ruling below both of these levels, the area of 100-DMA remains a important resistance area that the NIFTY will have to move past over coming days.
Overall, apart from PSU Banks and some resilience from the IT Index, the weakness had remained across the board. Up moves in NIFTY are likely to remain capped first 10470 and then at 10538 zones. Until these levels are breached on the upside, we will continue to see the Markets vulnerable at higher levels with every pullback. The NIFTY presently remains in no-trade zone and the sessions, just like the previous one, are likely to remain very much dominated with stock specific activities. We recommend refraining from creating any major positions and preserve liquidity to make quality purchases at each lower level. Continuance of cautious outlook is advised for the day.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Fresh unwinding of long positions was seen in stocks like JP ASSOCIATES, AXIS BANK, RCOM, INFOSYS, IDFC, PNB, TATA POWER, RELIANCE, PETRONT,  GRANULES, FEDERAL BANK, DLF, KOTAK BANK and HAVELLS.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member: 
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK 
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277  /  +91-98250-16331  
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com