Friday, December 28, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY December 28, 2012
The Markets had a session typically dominated with heavy rollover centric activities as it opened flat, spent most of the session in a very narrow range and then lost some ground towards the end to end the day with modest losses. The Markets opened on a mildly positive note and then traded positive in the first half of the session as it gave its intraday high of 5930.80 in the very early moments of the trade. The Markets then gradually drifted into the negative territory but still continued to trade with very capped losses. However, it was in the last hour of the trade that the Markets saw some bout of weakness as it drifted lower to give the day’s low of 5864.70. The Markets hovered around those levels to finally end the day at 5870.10, posting a net modest loss of 35.50 points or 0.60% as it still formed a slightly higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Precisely on expected lines, the levels of 5930-5940 have acted as crucial resistance again as the Markets did not move past them yesterday. Today, expect the Markets to open on a flat to mildly positive note again and look for directions. The intraday trajectory continues to remain critical as the Markets continue to remain in the broad trading range that it has been trading in.
Today, the levels of 5940 shall continue to remain the key resistance levels for today. The supports come in at 5820 and 5775 levels.
As we have been mentioning in the previous editions of the Daily Market Trend Guide, the lead indicators continue to remain neutral to mildly bearish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.9366 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line.
On the derivative front, the statistics are mildly bullish. The NIFTY rollover has been little above average and better than the previous month and the NIFTY PCR has begun the new series with 0.88, which is much better.
Having said this, the pattern analysis of the Markets clearly continue to show the Markets trading in a broad range and fresh sustainable upward breakout shall occur only after the Markets moves past the levels of 5940-5950. Until this happens, we will continue to see the Markets trading in the broad trading range of 5820-5940 with some degree of volatility ingrained in it.
All and all, keeping this in mind, it is advised to continue to approach the Markets in a cautious and with a stock specific approach and should also continue to protect profits vigilantly. While avoiding shorts, very selective purchases may be made. Overall, mildly positive, but cautious outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Thursday, December 27, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY December 27, 2012
The Markets had a buoyant session yesterday as it once again attempted to reach the upper end of the broad trading range that it has been trading in. The markets opened on a positive note, perked up further in the second half of the session and ended the day with decent gains. The markets opened on a positive note and after opening, traded positive in a sideward trajectory for some time. However, it perked up further. It went on to give the day’s high of 5917.30. It hovered around those levels for the last hour of the trade and finally managed to end the day at 5905.60, still posting a decent gain of 49.85 points or 0.85%. It has formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Markets are poised once again at a critical juncture today. Today is the expiry day of the current derivative series. Also, expect a flat to mildly positive opening in the Markets today. With the Markets expected to open around the upper band of the broad trading range that the Markets have been trading in, the trajectory that the Markets forms after opening would be very critical and crucial to decide the trend for today.
For today, the levels of 5940 and 5975 shall act as critical resistance for the Markets and the levels of 5860 and 5810 shall act as immediate supports.
The lead indicators still continue to remain neutral to mildly bearish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 59.9811 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD, however continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.
On the derivative front, total NIFTY Futures have shown a mild shedding in total Open Interest. This signifies that it was some amount of short covering that led to the buoyancy yesterday. The NIFTY PCR rose to 1.12 as against 1.05.
The Markets are poised at a critical juncture because if it moves past the levels of 5930-5940, we may see a short term upward momentum in the Markets. However, global markets are awaiting in larger quantum, some agreement to be reached on fiscal cliff issue in the US. Any negative outcome, or any lack of outcome can negatively impact the global sentiments.
Speaking purely on technical terms, any move beyond the levels of 5930-5940 levels can bring short term upward momentum. If the Markets do not move past these levels, we may again continue to trade in a broad range that we have been trading in. Selective approach to the Markets with vigilant profit protection is advised with a cautiously positive outlook for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY December, 26, 2012
There was a directionless session on Monday, as such on expected lines as the Markets opened positive and spent the entire session doing nothing moving in a very capped narrow range and ended the day with very minor gains. The Markets opened on a moderately positive note and gave its intraday high of 5871.90 in the very early minutes of the trade. Thereafter, the Markets formed a sideward trajectory and remained in such trajectory for the entire session. It traded in a very capped and narrow range and finally ended the day at 5855.75, posting a minor gain of 8.05 points or 0.14%, forming a lower top and almost similar bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, expect the Markets to open on a flat to moderately positive note again and look for directions. We enter the penultimate day of expiry of current derivative series and the trade is expected to remain dominated with rollover activities. Six major global Markets are shut due to Christmas holidays and this will show in the overall volume. Directionless and range bound movement cannot be ruled out in the Markets today.
For today, the levels of 5900 and 5930 shall continue to act as resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 5830 and 5780 levels.
The lead indicators of the Markets continue to remain neutral to mildly bearish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.5379 and it is neutral as it shows no failure swings or any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line.
On the Derivative front, NIFTY Futures show nominal addition in Open Interest. This signifies that there has been no major addition of longs, and also, there has been no significant offloading / unwinding of any long positions. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.05.
Having said this, it is important to note that due to year end and Christmas holidays, the Markets will see only “statutory participation” and due to this volumes will continue to remain impacted.
All and all, no major directional move is expected. We can see further weakness if the Markets dips below 5815 levels. But any move, on either side, may not sustain as it is likely to be without any significant volumes and participation. It is advised to continue to remain light on positions and at the same time, keep protecting profits vigilantly. Overall, neutral outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Monday, December 24, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY December 24, 2012
The Markets continued with its disappointing performance, even on Friday as it continued to drift further down to end yet another day with losses. The markets opened on a negative note and remained in negative territory throughout the trading session. After opening on a negative note, the Markets traded with capped loses in the morning trade. However, in the second half of the session, further weakness crept into the Markets as it drifted further down to give the day’s low of 5841.55. No significant recovery was seen as the Markets ended the day at 5847.70, posting a net loss of 68.70 points or 1.15%. It formed a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
The Markets have still continued to remain in a broad range of 5720-5950 and still continues to remain in this range. For today, we can again expect a flat to moderately positive opening in the Markets. The trend thereafter would depend heavily on the intraday trajectory and the rollover activities as w e enter expiry week today. The week is truncated with tomorrow being a trading holiday on account of Christmas.
With the Markets continuing to remain in abroad range, for today, the levels of 5900-5940 shall continue to act as immediate resistance. The supports are expected to come in at 5810 and further down at 5860 levels.
The lead indicators for the Markets are neutral to bearish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.5913 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days. This is bearish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 64.5562 and is neutral as it does not show any bullish or bearish divergences or failure swings. The Weekly MACD continues to trade above its signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY December Futures have shed over 40.55 lakh shares or 20.65% in Open Interest. However, this figures presents incorrect pictures as rollovers have begun. However, still net shedding of OI is reported. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.03 as against 1.08.
Global Markets would stand affected due to no agreements being reached on Fiscal Cliff issue. However, speaking purely on technical grounds, our Markets will continue to remain in a range. Further weakness would creep in if we breach the levels of 5920 on the Daily Charts.
All and all, this being truncated week, the Markets are more or less likely to remain in a broad trading range. While avoiding shorts in the Markets until clear breakdown is there, selective purchases may be made while protecting profits very vigilantly. Neutrally cautious outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,