Wednesday, April 4, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY April 4, 2012
Positive consolidation continued yesterday also as the Markets ended the day with gains despite range bound and volatile session. The Markets opened positive and remained positive for the entire session. The Markets remained in 25-odd points range in the entire morning trade but went on to give the intraday high of 5378.75. It saw some sudden paring of gains towards second half of the session but again recovered to finally end the day at 5358.50, still posting a decent gain of 40.60 points or 0.76%. It has formed a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, expect the Markets to take some breather and consolidate around these levels as it has approached its important pattern resistance of 5400-5420. We are likely to see a moderately negative start today and the Markets shall look for directions continuing to heavily depend upon the intraday trajectory.
Technical speaking, the Markets have created a gap between 5331 and 5344 (yesterday’s low and the day before yesterday’s high) and it might fill up that cap in a mild consolidation /correction. For today, the levels 5400-5420 shall continue to act as major pattern resistance and the levels of 5330 and 5280 shall act as supports. The level of 5324 shall be a important support in form of 50-DMA at Close .
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.2934 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is BULLISH. Also, the RSI has given a new 14-day high whereas the NIFTY has not yet and this is BULLISH DIVERGENCE. The Daily MACD too has reported a Bullish Crossover as it now trades above its signal line.
NIFTY futures have shown a nominal decrease of 0.58% in Open Interest. Stock futures have continue to add net open interest. Further to this, the strength in the lead indicators strongly suggest that any weakness that we might see should be temporary and the overall trend and undercurrent remains bullish.
Having said this, today is the last trading day of this short week with Tomorrow and Friday would be trading holiday on account of Mahavir Jayanti and Good Friday respectively. Due to only this factor we may see some sluggish behaviour in the Markets due to holiday ahead otherwise, as said earlier, undercurrent remains bullish.
All and all, stock specific action is advised. It is advised to refrain from shorts and also refrain from aggressive positions overall. The Markets may consolidate until they move past 5400-5420 levels and fresh sustainable up move is expected beyond this. Until this happens, we expect the Markets to consolidate in a range bound and little volatile manner. Overall, cautious optimism is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY April 3, 2012
The Markets saw positive consolidation yesterday quite on expected lines as it remained range bound and volatile but ended the day on a positive note. The Markets opened on a moderately negative note but gave its intraday low of 5278.80 in the very early seconds of the trade. It recovered to trade in green soon but after trading in a capped range, it pared all of its gains to trade in negative. However, the Markets recovered in the afternoon trade and went on to give intraday high of 5331.55. Again, it saw sudden paring of some gains but recovered again to end the day at 5317.90, posting a modest gain of 22.35 points or 0.42%. In the process, it has formed a higher top and much higher bottom on the Daily High Low charts.
For today, expect the Markets to open on a positive note and trade positive at least in the initial session. The Markets have 50-DMA at 5318 and it has resisted this levels at Close as it closed at 5317.90. After opening above this levels, it would be critical to see if the Markets capitalizes on the positive opening.
For today, the levels of 5355 and 5400 are the immediate resistance levels on the Charts and the levels of 5280 and 5265 are expected to act as immediate supports.
All lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 51.8571 and it shows no negative divergence or failure swings as is therefore neutral. The Daily MACD still continues to remain an trade below its signal line.
The trend of F&O Statistics remain similar like that of previous session with NIFTY Futures shedding open interest however Stock Futures have reported addition and rise in Open Interest.
We have been expecting the Markets to see positive consolidation yesterday and that is what it happened and we also expect this trend to continue to day. The Markets may see some range bound movement as it inches up to 5400 levels and this may also see some volatility ingrained in it. The most critical factor that would help the Markets on the upside would be the ability of the Markets to sustain its positive opening and capitalize on it. For this, the intraday trend that it forms post opening would be critical.
All and all, with overall positive consolidation expected, it is advised to refrain from shorts and continue selective buying along with protection of profits at higher levels. Overall, positive outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Monday, April 2, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY April 2, 2012
After dipping below its crucial 200-DMA on Thursday but holding that support at Close, the Markets continued with their up move on Friday as it opened positive, remained in rising trajectory for the entire session and went on to end the day with decent gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and remained in upward rising trajectory for the entire session. It went on to give the intraday high of 5307.10 and ended the day at 5295.55, posting a decent gain of 116.70 points or 2.25%. It formed a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Charts and has ended the week flat with net gains of just 17.35 points or 0.38%.
For today, we can expect the Markets to open on a flat to moderately negative note. The Markets are expected to consolidate after Friday’s gains and thus intraday trajectory would continue to remain important and crucial. The way Markets took supports at their 200-DMA, it has closed near its 50-DMA and thus this level of 5312 is likely to act a resistance at Close levels if the Markets consolidate its gains.
The levels of 5312 and 5365 are immediate resistance on the Charts and the levels of 5250 and 5210 are immediate supports. The volumes too would be important to watch out for and are expected to be lower if the Markets consolidates.
All lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 50.5086 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line. On the Weekly Chart, the RSI is 53.5388 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Weekly MACD continues to remain BULLISH as it trades above its signal line.
The NIFTY Futures have shown a nominal decline in Open Interest and the Stock Futures have shown increase in Open Interest. The overall rally on Friday can be translated as very sharp short covering which was somewhat replaced with select buying and this trend is expected to continue this week. The reading of Daily and Weekly indicators on the Charts put this week’s trend as “Neutral to bullish”.
All and all, the Markets may consolidate today and even this week, this being a very short week of just 3 working days. This consolidation may keep the Markets in a capped range and usually volatile. However, if the Markets consolidates, it is likely to keep the volumes low. However, given all this, the bias remains on the upside as the overall technicals remain intact. Shorts should be avoided and selective purchases may be made. Overall, positive approach with some degree of caution is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,