Monday, December 31, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY December 31, 2012
The session on Friday again saw a bout or sharp recovery towards the end after spending the session in a listless manner and ended the day with modest gains. The Markets opened on a positive and higher note on Friday but after briefly trading in a capped range, slowly transformed into falling channel and kept gradually losing ground. The Markets pared almost all of its opening gains as it gave a day’s low of 5879.50. Though it never dipped into negative, it pared all of its opening gains in the day’s trade. However, in the last half an hour of the trade, the Markets saw a very sharp recovery, probably on account of short covering. The Markets regained all of its lost gains and gave the day’s high of 5915.75. It finally ended the day at 5908.35, posting a modest gain of 38.25 points or 0.65% while forming a lower top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, we enter into the last trading session for the year 2013 when the Global Markets are closely watching the developments in the US over the fiscal cliff issue. Markets are expected to open on a flat to mildly positive note again. The Markets are still very much within the broad trading range that they have been trading in. Therefore, the opening of the Markets, and its behaviour vis-à-vis the critical resistance levels shall be crucial to decide the trend for the Markets.
For today, the levels of 5940-5950 shall continue to act as key resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 5850 and 5810 levels.
On the Daily Charts, the RSI—Relative Strength Index is 58.9432 and it is neutral as it shows no bearish or bullish divergences. It also does not show any failure swings. The Daily MACD is bearish as it trades below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 66.6720 and it does not show any failure swings. However, the Weekly RSI has reached its lowest in last 14-weeks which is bearish. The Weekly MACD continues to remain bullish while trading above its signal line.
On the derivative note, the NIFTY Futures have shed over 1.33 lakh shares or 0.81% in Open Interest. This signifies that the last hour spurt that we saw in the Markets was more of a short covering than any fresh buying. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1 as against 0.88.
From the above reading, it is clear that the Markets have a neutral to mildly negative bias until we move past the levels of 5940-5950 in a convincing manner and give a sustainable upward breakout. Until this happens, the Markets will trade in a range with a downward bias and the volatility in the Markets shall refuse to go away. Also, the pending US Fiscal cliff issue will be closely observed and reacted to by the Global Markets and this will have its effect on Indian Markets.
Again speaking purely on technical grounds, no up move can be expected until we move past the 5940-5950 levels. Until this, it is advised to remain very selective and light on positions while protecting profits vigilantly at higher levels. Overall, mildly positive approach with high degree of caution is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Friday, December 28, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY December 28, 2012
The Markets had a session typically dominated with heavy rollover centric activities as it opened flat, spent most of the session in a very narrow range and then lost some ground towards the end to end the day with modest losses. The Markets opened on a mildly positive note and then traded positive in the first half of the session as it gave its intraday high of 5930.80 in the very early moments of the trade. The Markets then gradually drifted into the negative territory but still continued to trade with very capped losses. However, it was in the last hour of the trade that the Markets saw some bout of weakness as it drifted lower to give the day’s low of 5864.70. The Markets hovered around those levels to finally end the day at 5870.10, posting a net modest loss of 35.50 points or 0.60% as it still formed a slightly higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Precisely on expected lines, the levels of 5930-5940 have acted as crucial resistance again as the Markets did not move past them yesterday. Today, expect the Markets to open on a flat to mildly positive note again and look for directions. The intraday trajectory continues to remain critical as the Markets continue to remain in the broad trading range that it has been trading in.
Today, the levels of 5940 shall continue to remain the key resistance levels for today. The supports come in at 5820 and 5775 levels.
As we have been mentioning in the previous editions of the Daily Market Trend Guide, the lead indicators continue to remain neutral to mildly bearish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.9366 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line.
On the derivative front, the statistics are mildly bullish. The NIFTY rollover has been little above average and better than the previous month and the NIFTY PCR has begun the new series with 0.88, which is much better.
Having said this, the pattern analysis of the Markets clearly continue to show the Markets trading in a broad range and fresh sustainable upward breakout shall occur only after the Markets moves past the levels of 5940-5950. Until this happens, we will continue to see the Markets trading in the broad trading range of 5820-5940 with some degree of volatility ingrained in it.
All and all, keeping this in mind, it is advised to continue to approach the Markets in a cautious and with a stock specific approach and should also continue to protect profits vigilantly. While avoiding shorts, very selective purchases may be made. Overall, mildly positive, but cautious outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Thursday, December 27, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY December 27, 2012
The Markets had a buoyant session yesterday as it once again attempted to reach the upper end of the broad trading range that it has been trading in. The markets opened on a positive note, perked up further in the second half of the session and ended the day with decent gains. The markets opened on a positive note and after opening, traded positive in a sideward trajectory for some time. However, it perked up further. It went on to give the day’s high of 5917.30. It hovered around those levels for the last hour of the trade and finally managed to end the day at 5905.60, still posting a decent gain of 49.85 points or 0.85%. It has formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Markets are poised once again at a critical juncture today. Today is the expiry day of the current derivative series. Also, expect a flat to mildly positive opening in the Markets today. With the Markets expected to open around the upper band of the broad trading range that the Markets have been trading in, the trajectory that the Markets forms after opening would be very critical and crucial to decide the trend for today.
For today, the levels of 5940 and 5975 shall act as critical resistance for the Markets and the levels of 5860 and 5810 shall act as immediate supports.
The lead indicators still continue to remain neutral to mildly bearish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 59.9811 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD, however continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.
On the derivative front, total NIFTY Futures have shown a mild shedding in total Open Interest. This signifies that it was some amount of short covering that led to the buoyancy yesterday. The NIFTY PCR rose to 1.12 as against 1.05.
The Markets are poised at a critical juncture because if it moves past the levels of 5930-5940, we may see a short term upward momentum in the Markets. However, global markets are awaiting in larger quantum, some agreement to be reached on fiscal cliff issue in the US. Any negative outcome, or any lack of outcome can negatively impact the global sentiments.
Speaking purely on technical terms, any move beyond the levels of 5930-5940 levels can bring short term upward momentum. If the Markets do not move past these levels, we may again continue to trade in a broad range that we have been trading in. Selective approach to the Markets with vigilant profit protection is advised with a cautiously positive outlook for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY December, 26, 2012
There was a directionless session on Monday, as such on expected lines as the Markets opened positive and spent the entire session doing nothing moving in a very capped narrow range and ended the day with very minor gains. The Markets opened on a moderately positive note and gave its intraday high of 5871.90 in the very early minutes of the trade. Thereafter, the Markets formed a sideward trajectory and remained in such trajectory for the entire session. It traded in a very capped and narrow range and finally ended the day at 5855.75, posting a minor gain of 8.05 points or 0.14%, forming a lower top and almost similar bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, expect the Markets to open on a flat to moderately positive note again and look for directions. We enter the penultimate day of expiry of current derivative series and the trade is expected to remain dominated with rollover activities. Six major global Markets are shut due to Christmas holidays and this will show in the overall volume. Directionless and range bound movement cannot be ruled out in the Markets today.
For today, the levels of 5900 and 5930 shall continue to act as resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 5830 and 5780 levels.
The lead indicators of the Markets continue to remain neutral to mildly bearish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.5379 and it is neutral as it shows no failure swings or any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line.
On the Derivative front, NIFTY Futures show nominal addition in Open Interest. This signifies that there has been no major addition of longs, and also, there has been no significant offloading / unwinding of any long positions. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.05.
Having said this, it is important to note that due to year end and Christmas holidays, the Markets will see only “statutory participation” and due to this volumes will continue to remain impacted.
All and all, no major directional move is expected. We can see further weakness if the Markets dips below 5815 levels. But any move, on either side, may not sustain as it is likely to be without any significant volumes and participation. It is advised to continue to remain light on positions and at the same time, keep protecting profits vigilantly. Overall, neutral outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,