Friday, November 30, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 30, 2012
Unabated rise continued in the Markets yesterday, even on the expiry day with volatility totally absent as the Markets ended the day with yet another robust gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and maintained its upward rising trajectory all throughout the session. The Markets kept giving new intraday highs as the session progressed. Towards the end, the Markets went on to give its 52-week high of 5833.50, touching the upper end of the broad trading range it has been trading in. It finally ended the day at 5825, posting a gain of 97.55 points or 1.70% forming a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, expect a quiet opening in the Markets and it would be very critically important to see if the Markets maintains the levels above of 5815 which is the upper end of the broad trading range it has been trading in. If the Markets are able to maintain levels above 5815, it would attempt to give a new break out on the upside, but at the same time shall get almost overbought.
For today, the levels of 5870 and 5940 are the two immediate resistance levels. Supports come in much lower at 5730 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 68.4086 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. The Daily MACD too is bullish as it trades above its signal line.
Having said this, it is important to note that the Markets have risen near 5% or over 200 points in last 2-3 sessions some consolidation / correction is overdue in the Markets. Further, it is important to note that any further such rise that we saw in last two sessions would make the Markets “Overbought”.
So, the opening levels in the Markets and its trading above the levels of 5815-5820 would be critical to watch for. It would attempt to give a upward breakout if it tries to move past 5820 again but at the same time, due to reasons mentioned above, there are equal chances that some minor correction sets in.
All and all, even though lead indicators remain buoyant, some profit taking can be witnessed later in the day and the possibility of paring of some gains cannot be ruled out. It is strongly suggested to now refrain from taking any aggressive long positions and protect profits on the long positions. Any continued rise in the manner witnessed in last two days shall make the Markets “overbought” and unhealthy. Extremely cautious outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Thursday, November 29, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 29, 2012
The Markets remained shut yesterday on account of “Gurunanak Jayanti” . On Tuesday, the Markets had a extremely buoyant session as it opened positive and remained in positive territory all throughout the session ended the day on a very strong note. The Markets opened positive and kept making new intraday highs during the day. Towards the end of the session, it gave an intraday high of 5733.20. It maintained those levels until the end of the session and ended the day on a very buoyant note at 5727.45, posting a strong gain of 91.55 points or 1.62% while forming a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, the Markets are expected to open on a flat note and look for directions. The Markets have resisted to its resistance levels of 5730 and if it opens below this, then this level might act as resistance. On the upside, this may act as supports but the Markets still continue to remain in a broad trading range, the upper end being the 5800-5820 levels. Thus, the opening of the Markets and the intraday trajectory it forms shall continue to play critical roll in deciding the trend for today.
The levels of 5730 and 5800 shall act as resistance and the supports come very low at around 5630 and 5575 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 60.3629 and it is neutral as it shows no negative / positive divergence or failure swings. The MACD has turned bullish as it has reported a positive crossover and it now trades above its signal line.
Having said this, it is important to note that today is the expiry day of the current November Derivative Series and the session is likely to remain heavily dominated with rollover centric activities. The Markets have continued to remain in a very broad trading range and it has not been out of it as yet.
All and all, in case of negative opening, 5730 shall pose a resistance and in case of positive opening 5800 shall pose important and major resistance to the Markets. In the initial session, the opening levels of the Markets and the intraday trajectory that it forms thereafter shall be critical for today.
Overall, mildly positive session can be expected. The session is also likely to remain volatile owing to rollovers and the Markets may still continue to remain in a range. Selective purchases may be made and sectoral out performance may be seen. However, it is strongly advised to remain highly selective and keep protecting profits on either side of the trade.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 27, 2012
The Markets spent yet another session consolidating and resisting to its critical levels as it ended the day yesterday with very minor gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and gave its intraday high of 5649.20 in the very early minutes of the trade. However, in the morning trade, it then kept losing ground gradually as it pared all of its gains until afternoon. The Markets saw some recover again in the second half of the trade, but again pared its gains by the end of the session. The Markets finally managed to end the day at 5635.90, posting a minor gain of 9.30 points or 0.17% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
For today, expect the Markets to see some positive strong opening on back of positive global cues. The key thing for the Markets would be to capitalize on the positive and strong opening and maintain a positive upward rising trajectory. The Markets would still remain in a broad trading range after expected positive opening.
The Markets have been resisting to the key levels of 5630 and the 50-DMA and these levels shall continue to remain the key resistance levels along with the 5700 levels. The supports would come in at 5630 and 5570 levels.
There are no directional triggers for the Markets on the up side. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 49.0562 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line.
We are into expiry week of the current derivative series and we have a truncated week this time as tomorrow is a trading holiday on account of Gurunanak Jayanti.
Having said this, even with the positive opening around the expected levels on back of positive global cues, it would be critically important to see if the Markets are able to maintain those opening gains and capitalizes on this positive opening. It is also important to note that even this positive opening will cause the Markets to open around its critical resistance levels and is likely to find resistance there.
All and all, there are chances that the Markets gradually pares its gains as we go ahead in the session. There are also chances that we see good amount of volatility ingrained in the Markets today. It is advised to remain selective while taking fresh positions and keep protecting profits on either side. Overall cautious outlook is continued on the Markets.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Monday, November 26, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 26, 2012
The Markets on Friday ended the day on a flat note after it recovered from its day’s low continuing with its consolidation. The Markets opened on a flat to mildly positive note and gave its intraday high of 5637.75 in the early minutes of the trade. The Markets continued to trade in a very capped range in the morning trade but thereafter lost some ground as it continued to slip gradually. It not only dipped into the red, but went on to give the intraday low of 5593.55. However, in the last hour and half of trade, the Markets saw some recovery coming in form of short covering. It recovered from its lows and finally ended the day at 5626.60, posing a net loss of 1.15 points or 0.02% forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, we enter into the expiry week of the current series and the Market behaviour in coming days is all set to remain influenced with the rollover activities. For today, expect the Markets to open on a moderately positive to flat note and the behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 5630 would be critical. The Markets will have to remain above this levels to avoid any weakness creeping in.
For today, the levels of 5630 and 5675 shall act as immediate resistance levels and the levels of 5575 and 5530 are immediate supports.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 47.6575 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts too, the RSI is neutral without showing any failure swings or bullish / bearish divergence. The Weekly MACD trades above its signal line.
Going by the above, the Markets do not have any specific directional triggers on the upside and thus, it is sure to remain influenced with the rollover activities. The NIFTY futures have shed over 6 lakh shares or 4.8% in Open Interest on Friday. This signifies that the rise that we saw towards the end of the session was more due to short covering and not due to any fresh buying.
Having said this, the opening levels of the Markets and the behaviour vis-à-vis the levels of 5630 would be important. It will have to comfortably sustain above this levels in order to avoid any weakness.
All and all, the intraday trajectory the Markets form would be important to decide the trend for today. Stock specific and rollover centric activity shall dominate the Markets. Overall structure and pattern analysis of the Markets show to directional triggers on the upside. While remaining highly stock specific and cautious, aggressive positions are not advised.
Consulting Technical Analyst,