Friday, January 6, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY January 6, 2012
The Markets continued to consolidate yesterday, very much on expected lines as it opened on a positive note, continued to trade in positive territory but in a capped range, pared its gains, and recovered to close virtually unchanged at 4749.95, posting a very negligible gain of 0.30 point or 0.01%. In the process, the Markets have formed a parallel bar on the Daily High Low Chart as they have continued to consolidate.
Today’s analysis is going to be no different than that of yesterday. For today, expect the Markets to open on a mildly negative note and would continue to look directions. Again, as it was yesterday, the intraday trajectory and the volumes would play the critical role in determining the trend for today as the Markets are currently into consolidation phase. Again like yesterday, the levels of 4800 would continue to act as temporary resistance and the Markets needs to move past that level for a fresh up move.
All lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 48.4292 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to trade above its signal line and is therefore bullish. The levels of 4800 and 4830 shall as resistance today, and the levels of 4710 and 4680 are technical supports.
As mentioned in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide, the Markets continue to remain in broad range indicated with two blue lines on the charts and will have to move past the levels of 4800 for a fresh up move. The NIFTY Futures have added 5.08 lakh shares in Open Interest. Though the Markets continue to consolidate, the undercurrent still remains buoyant.
All and all, it is advised to keep making selective purchases and continue to protect profits until the Markets move past 4800, but at the same time, shorts should be avoided. The consolidation phase may keep the markets volatile and range bound but the lead indicators and F&O statistics point towards mild buoyancy. Overall continuance of positive approach is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Thursday, January 5, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY January 5, 2012
The Markets yesterday traded almost very near to what it was analysed in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide as it consolidated just below 4800 mark and then suddenly pared its gains towards the end to end the day with moderate losses. The Markets opened positive but soon dipped into the red. The Markets saw a sharp recovery in the afternoon trade, but in the last hour and half of trade, it pared all of its gains, recovered a bit again to finally end the day at 4749.65, posting a net loss of 15.65 points or 0.33%.
Today, expect the Markets to open flat and continue to consolidate. The levels of 4800 would still continue to act as temporary resistance until the Markets moves past it. Until this happens, it is likely to remain in a broad range of 4800 on the upper side and 4650 on the lower side. This is a broad range which is indicated with the red and black support lines on the Chart above. For any sustainable up move to occur, the Markets will have to move past the levels of 4800 and sustain above that.
All lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 48.4079 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.
NIFTY has shown a very negligible decrease of 0.47% in Open Interest which should not be a factor to worry about. Majority of NIFTY components have either shown increase in open interest with the price rise or some amount of increase in OI even with the decrease in price indicating some creation of short positions.
All and all, the Markets may continue to consolidate in the opening trade and may look for directions. Both intraday trajectory and volumes shall be critical to decide the trend but at the same time the undercurrent remains bullish and the bias remains towards upside. Selective purchases may be made and at the same time, profits at higher levels should be protected until the Markets moves past the levels of 4800. Overall, cautious optimism is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY January 4, 2012
The Markets saw a very stable and sustained up move yesterday as it opened expectedly positive and maintained its trajectory through out the session to end the day with robust gains. The Markets opened positive, went on to give intraday high of 4773.10, and ended the day near the high point of the day at 4765.30, posting a robust gain of 128.55 points or 2.77%. This was reflected across all sectoral indices too and in the process, the Markets have formed a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
For today, expect the Markets to open on a positive note and continue with its up move at least in the initial trade. Technically, it is expected to continue with the up move as it has closed near the high point of the day. As always, due to little lower volumes, the intraday trajectory would continue to play crucial role in helping the trend to sustain.
As evident in the above chart, the level of 4795-4810 is the level which it broke earlier (the black support line drawn) is likely to act as resistance. Thus, for today, the levels of 4795 and 4835 are likely to act as resistance today.
All lead indicators continue to throw positive and bullish signals today. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 49.3993 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. Also, the RSI has set a new 14-day high, whereas, NIFTY has not yet, and this is Bullish Divergence. The Daily MACD continues to trade above its signal line and is therefore bullish. On the Candles, A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 3 rising windows in the last 50 candles--this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
All and all, the under current remaining bullish. The Markets faces resistance around 4800 levels as mentioned above and are likely to consolidate around that level or may see minor profit taking even with the under current remaining buoyant. The Markets will have to move past the 4800 levels for further up move and there are chances that consolidation is seen. Overall, while protecting profits at higher levels, positive outlook may be maintained as bias still remains towards upside.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, January 03, 2012 (Published in the morning before the Markets opened)
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY January 3, 2012
The Markets had an expectedly direction-less session with bias towards upside as it spent the entire day on low volumes and finally ended the day at 4636.75, posting a net gain of 12.45 points or 0.27%, starting the new year and the first day of the week on very moderate note. The volumes too remained below average. However, the Markets have still continued to form a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts, the only technical difference being that it ended the day near the high point of the day which is important.
For today, since the Markets have ended the day near the high point of the day, it is expected to technically continue its up move. This would be supported by positive global markets. Aided by favourable technicals and supporting global markets, expect the Markets to open on a positive note and trade positive at least in the initial trade.
For today, the levels of 4675 and 4720 are likely to act as resistance and the levels of 4625 and 4590 are likely to act as supports. The red-line shown in the Charts above is the support it broke in the immediate past and is likely to act as resistance and the Markets will have to move past that levels which are 4675 which shall enable it to move ahead until 4790 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 40.0314 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line.
On the Candles too, some positive signs are seen. A hammer occurred (a hammer has a long lower shadow and closes near the high). Hammers must appear after a significant decline or when prices are oversold (which appears to be the case with NIFTY) to be valid. When this occurs, it usually indicates the formation of a support level and is thus considered a bullish pattern.
A hanging man occurred (a hanging man has a very long lower shadow and a small real body). This pattern can be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend. If it occurs during an uptrend it is called a hanging man line and signifies a reversal top. If it occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with NIFTY) it is called a bullish hammer.
All and all, even though the Markets are likely and set to give a positive opening, the volumes will continue to place a critical role in maintain the trajectory and sustaining the stronger opening. Any lack of volumes will continue to keep the Markets volatile and in a range. However, the bias still continues to be on up side and thus it is advised that shorts should be avoided even in case of temporary weakness and opportunities should be used to make selective purchases. Overall positive outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Monday, January 2, 2012
MyMoneyPlant.co.in Wishes you all a Very Happy and Wealthy and Prosperous 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY January 2, 2012
The Markets spent the last week of the Year 2011 on a very low volumes, remained directionless for the most part of the sessions during the day, and ended the last four out of five days with losses. On Friday too, the Markets, after trading with almost 1% gain, suddenly pared all of its gains to end the day at 4624.30, posting a loss of 21.95 points or 0.47%. With this, the Markets have ended the week with net loss of 89.70 points or 1.90%.
Today also, we can expect a total flat and directionless opening in the Markets. The Markets are expected to open on a flat note and thus continue to depend on the intraday trajectory it forms and also the volumes. Volumes would be critical for any up move because, they have been lower than average for the entire last week. Also, major global markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and US are Closed today and this would certainly reflect domestic volumes too.
Further to this, the Daily and Weekly Charts continue to throw slightly contradictory signals and this would keep the Markets volatile and more or less directionless. But this contradiction has a bias towards up side. The RSI on the Daily Chart is 39.0160 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD still continues to be Bullish as it trades above its signal line.
On the Weekly Chart, the Weekly MACD is bearish as it trades below its signal line. But on the other hand, the Weekly RSI, which is 39.0412 shows a Bullish Divergence as the NIFTY has set a new 14-week low, but the RSI has not.
All and all, such conditions on the Charts are likely to keep the Markets overall volatile and directionless, but with a positive bias. Further, the volumes are certainly to remain a concern today and this may pose resistance to any sustainable upside or downside equally. Stock specific activity shall continue. Overall, it is advised to avoid aggressive positions on either side, especially on the short side and extremely selective stock specific purchases may be made while protecting profits at higher levels. Cautiously positive approach is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,