Friday, November 9, 2012
BRIEF MARKET FORECAST FOR THE DAY
The Markets are expected to open on a moderately lower note again and would likely to hover around the levels of 5730 again and the behavior of the Markets vis-a-vis this levels would decide the trend for today. The intraday trajectory that the Markets forms would be critically important to decide the trend for today. With lack of any positive directional triggers, the Markets may continue to remain in a range like yesterday and trade with moderately downward bias.
All and all, no sustainable up move can be expected until the Markets moves past its previous highs and comfortably maintains levels above 5730-5780. Until then it is likely to continue to remain in a range and thus volatility shall continue to remain ingrained in it. Lack of directional triggers requires to protect profits on either side and remain moderate and selective on new positions.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Thursday, November 8, 2012
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 08, 2012
Though the Markets came off a bit from its highs it still managed to pull off a moderately decent close yesterday after a relatively strong session. The Markets opened on a flat note and gave its intraday low of 5711.30 in the early morning trade as it slipped into the red for a very brief period. However, it then came back into the positive territory and kept giving new highs and managed to move past the critical resistance level of 5730 as it gave the day’s high of 5777.30. In the last hour of trade, the Markets came off a bit but still ended at 5760.10, ended the day with moderately decent gain of 35.70 points or 0.62% forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low charts.
Today, in line with overall weakness in the global markets, we are likely to see the Markets opening with a gap down and open again below the critical levels of 5730. The global Markets are reacting to the US Electoral outcome and as a result, it would be critically important to see the behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 5730. There are chances that this level may again act as resistance if the Markets open below it.
For today, in case of lower opening of the Markets, the levels of 5730 and 5800 would continue to act as resistance and the levels of 5650-5630 shall act as supports.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 61.9491 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.
NIFTY futures have continued to add in Open Interest and the NIFTY PCR stands at 1.11 as against 1.12. Stock futures too have added nominal Open interest.
The Markets still do not have a very clear directional triggers. The weaker opening make cause the Markets to open below the levels of 5730 and there are chances that the Markets may resist to that levels again. In that case, we will see the weakness returning to the Markets. In case of the Markets managing to remain above the levels of 5730, a range bound consolidation cannot be ruled out.
All and all, with still no clear directional triggers, the Markets are likely to continue to remain in broad 125-point trading range with the levels of 5630-5650 acting as major supports. Even in case of lower opening some stock specific action may be seen and it is therefore advised to continue to protect profits on either side. Volatility may also continue to remain ingrained in the Markets. Neutral to cautious outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
The Markets spent the entire session yesterday in directionless trajectory but perked up in the final hour of the trade to end the day with moderate gains. The Markets opened on a mildly positive note and continued to trade with capped gains in the first half of the session. The afternoon trade saw some pressure creeping in as the Markets slipped into the red to give the day's low of 5693.65. However, the final hour of the trade saw some short covering as the Markets recovered from its day's lows. It not only went into the green but went on to give the day's high of 5730.80. It finally ended the day at 5724.40, posting a moderate gain of 20.20 points or 0.35% while forming a moderately higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
For today, expect a flat opening in the Markets. The global markets have been flat and are likely to react either way to the US Election outcomes and so with no domestic triggers in the Markets, we are also likely to see a range bound trade in our Markets. MORE IMPORTANTLY, technically speaking, the Markets have resisted to the levels of 5730 which remains critical resistance levels followed by 5800. For the up move to continue, the Markets will have to move past this levels of 5730-5750.
The levels of 5730 and 5815 shall act as immediate resistance for the Markets and the supports come it at 5630 levels.
The lead indicator point towards potential weakness in the short term. The RSI--Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 58.6637 and it shows no failure swings. But, NIFTY has set a new 14-day high but RSI has not and this is BEARISH DIVERGENCE.
On the other hand, the NIFTY has went on to add some open interest showing some buying in the derivatives.
Having said this, there are mixed indications on the Charts with lead indicators suggesting potential weakness in the short term and the F&O data suggests some resistance on the downside. All this is likely to keep the Markets in a range and bit volatile with a slight bias on the downside.
All and all, the Markets are likely to remain in a range and a bit of volatility may remain ingrained in it. It is advised to keep protecting profits on either side and keep taking fresh positions on highly selective basis as there is no directional trend until the Markets moves past the levels of 5730-5740 and sustains above that. Overall, continuation of cautious outlook is advised for today.
Consulting Technical Analyst,