Gemstone Equity Research &amp; Advisory Services

+91-98250-16331

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, September 05, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY September 05, 2012

The Markets managed to hang on to its 50-DMA as support at Close levels as it began the day weak, but saw some recovery in the second half of the session to end the day with modest gains. The Markets opened on a moderately negative note and traded in a capped range for half of the session. The Markets thereafter saw some sharp recovery in the second half of the session. It its losses and went on to trade in positive territory. It also gave its intraday high of 5278.35 towards the end of the session. It finally ended the day at 5274, posting a modest gain of 20.25 points or 0.39%. In the process, the Markets have formed a slightly lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Expect the Markets to open again on a modestly negative note and look for directions. The Markets have been trapped in a very narrow range and the today’s opening will cause it to open near / around its 50-DMA levels again. Yesterday, it had resisted to the levels of 5280 which is a pattern resistance for the Markets. The intraday trajectory, would thus, continue to remain important.

The levels of 5280 and 5325 are immediate resistance on Charts and supports come in at 5262 and 5225 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 46.9176 and it is neutral as it shows no failure swings or positive / negative divergence. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line.

The F&O data continues to show divergent picture as the NIFTY has shed over 7.5 lakh shares in yesterday’s up move which shows heavy short covering from lower levels. It would be important to see if fresh longs are created after the shorts are covered. The NIFTY PCR stands unchanged at 0.91.

There was a pattern resistance at 5280 levels which the NIFTY breached and attempted to take support around its 50-DMA at Close so far. Today’s opening will again see the Markets struggling around those levels again. The volumes have remained around its average.

It can be concluded that the Markets are not completely out of the woods. The session will remain range bound and also bit volatile with sharp movements expected on either side. The Markets will have to see above 50-DMA or at least its filters to avoid weakness at Close. It is advised to avoid aggressive positions and remain extremely selective and light so far as fresh positions are concerned. Overall, continuance of cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

+91-98250-16331

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- September 04, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY September 04, 2012

What started out as a relatively buoyant session, turned out to be a dampener as the Markets pared all of its opening gains during the course of the session and ended the day with very negligible gains on low volumes. The Markets opened on a relatively better note and gave its intraday high of 5295.80 in the very early minutes of the trade. The Markets thereafter slowly and gradually pared all of its gains as it transformed into falling trajectory. In the mid session, it dipped into the red and gave its intraday low of 5243.15. It did made an attempt to recover as it came back into the green but drifted again to trade in capped range for the rest of the session. It finally ended the day at 5253.75, posting a very negligible loss of 4.75 points or 0.09% forming a slightly lower top but slightly higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today’s analysis would remain more or less similar to that of yesterday. The Markets have managed to hang on around 50-DMA levels at Close as it has closed just a notch below that. The Markets are expected to open on a mildly positive note and look for directions. The behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 50-DMA would be critically important.

The levels of 5280 and 5310 are resistance levels and supports come in at 5230 and 5205 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 44.0302 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. It does not show any bearish or bullish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line.

Having said this, as mentioned earlier, the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 50-DMA is critically important. The Markets will have to trade above those levels, in order to avoid any further weakness creeping in.

All and all, range bound but volatile trade may be expected. The Markets may remain range bound but at the same time, volatile movement on either side may not be ruled out. The levels of 50-DMAat Close would be important because further weakness cannot be ruled out if the Markets dips below that critical levels. Sectoral outperformance would be observed. Highly selective approach with caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

+91-98250-16331

Monday, September 3, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, September 03, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY September 03, 2012

The Markets began its new derivative series on a weaker note as it opened negative and after showing some resilience for some time, drifted lower to end the day with losses. The Markets opened on a weaker note but traded with capped losses and also made an feeble attempt to recover. However, though it recouped some of its losses in the late morning trade, the Markets saw the selling pressure returning in the second half of the session. It continued to drift lower as it went on to give the intraday low of 5238.90. It, however, recovered a bit from those levels as it finally ended the day at 5258.50, holding on to its important support levels as it posted a net loss of 56.55 points or 1.06%. It has continued to form a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Beginning the new week for the Markets, expect the Markets to open on a flat to mildly negative note and look for directions. There are no clear directional triggers for the Markets but it trades with a mild downward bias. It has closed exactly on the 50-DMA which is 5258.50, and the trend would depend on the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis this level.

The levels of immediate supports are 5220 and 5180 on the Charts if 50-DMA is breached.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 44.5581 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. It does not show any bullish / bearish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.

NIFTY futures have further went on to shed Open Interest. NIFTY PCR stands at 0.90 as against 0.92.

On the Weekly charts, on the Candles, An Engulfing Bearish Line has occurred. This pattern is bearish, particularly in this structure of the Charts. It shows potential chances of weakening of the Markets. However, this needs a confirmation. The RSI on the Weekly Chart is neutral and the Weekly MACD trades above it signal line.

Having said this, it can be concluded that the Markets have potential for little more weakness if it breaches the 50-DMA levels at Close. There is absence of any clear directional trigger on the Charts and this points towards a mild downward bias. In such circumstances, highly stock specific and selective approach is advised. Range bound movement with some amount of volatility ingrained in it cannot be ruled out. Overall, mildly positive approach with tinge of caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

+91-98250-16331