MARKET TREND FOR TODAY March 25, 2013
Markets consolidated around its key levels on Friday in a
volatile session as it finally ended the day on a flat note with negligible
losses. The Markets opened on a positive note and after trading briefly in to
the positive, it slowly drifted in the red. It kept drifting a bit in a caped
range with a minor attempts of recovery in between. It gave its day’s low of
5631.80 in the mid afternoon trade. However, in the second half of the session,
the Markets made a sharp recovery from its day’s low. It not only came off its lows but went into the positive territory
and also went on to give the day’s high of 5691.45. Unfortunately, the Markets
did not sustain that recovery and soon came off its high again and finally
ended the day at 5651.35, posting a net loss of 7.40 points or 0.13% forming a
minor lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low charts.
The Markets have consolidated in last two sessions and have
maintained above its key support levels. Today, expect the Markets to open on a
flat to positive note and look for directions. Stability after a volatile week
can be fairly expected but the intraday trajectory would continue to play a
vital role in keeping Markets above its key support levels.
For today, the levels of 5640 and 5620, in the form of its
200-DMA shall continue to act as important support levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
33.6107 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish.
However, it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD is
bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts
too the RSI has reached its lowest value in last 14-weeks, which is bearish,
but at the same time, it does not show any divergence on either side. The
Weekly MACD continues to trade below its signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY March futures has shed over
9.82 lakh shares or 6.79% in Open Interest where as April series has added over
8.36 lakh shares or 26.85% in Open Interest indicating rollover activities.
Having said this, though there can be some immediate short
term weakness / volatility in the Markets, it would be very important for the
Markets to trade above the levels of 5618 which is the 200-DMA of the Markets
and it would be critically important for the Markets to maintain its Close levels
above this. In case of any breach, it can infuse some more weakness in the
Markets but at the same time, it will take the Markets nearer to its oversold
zone.
All and all, though there is no breach on the Charts on the
downside, the lead indicators suggests extreme caution even if the Markets
trade around it key support levels. It would be imperative for the Markets to
maintain those levels but at the same time, volatility just cannot be ruled
out. Though selective out performance may be seen, cautious outlook is
continued to be advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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