MARKET
REPORT June
30, 2015
While trading
very much on the expected lines, the Markets had a horribly volatile session
dominated by the Greek developments though it ended the day with modest losses.
The Markets saw a gap down opening following weekend development in Greece and
as a result opened significantly gap down. After some sideways trade with
losses, the losses deepened further in the late morning trade as the Markets
saw the low point of the day at 8195.55. Markets continued to trade sideways
with deepened losses but it was the second half of the session that saw some
very sharp recovery. Again, much on expected lines some short covering and
value buying emerged which saw the Markets recovering nearly 120-odd points
from the low point of the day. It finally ended the day at 8318.40, losing just
62.70 points or 0.75% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily
Bar Charts.
MARKET
TREND FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 30, 2015
Today’s session too will witness the shadow of
Greece news flows. The Markets may again open modestly down and importantly, it
is likely to remain equally volatile. However, again, keeping the analysis on
the yesterday’s lines, the Markets may find bottom near the falling trend line
/ 50-DMA levels that it has managed to hold on yesterday. With massive amount
of shorts existing / created yesterday, the Markets may remain volatile but
will have a very less relative downside as compared to its Asian / Global
peers.
The levels of
8370 and 8415 are immediate resistance for the Markets. Supports come in a 8256
and 8210 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength
Index on the Daily Chart is 54.4055 and it remains neutral as it shows no
bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains
bullish as it trades above its signal line.
On the derivative
front, NIFTY July futures have added over 13.76 lakh shares or massive 9.96% in
Open Interest. This very clearly signifies that the Markets have created much
of the shorts and the bounce back that we saw yesterday was on value buying as
well and not just merely on short covering. NIFTY PCR stands at 1.06 as against
1.01.
Coming to pattern
analysis, though the Markets created a gap yesterday on the daily charts, it
still continues to trade above its 50-DMA above the falling trend line
resistance which it managed to move past. As also mentioned in one of our
previous editions of Daily Market Trend Guide, even with or without and news
flows, if the Markets consolidate broadly between its 50-DMA and 200-DMA, it
would be normal as per the Daily Chart. However, given the currently volatility
given the global news flows, we may observe some intraday breaches on the Charts
but at Close, the Markets are all likely to remain within its support and its
filter.
Overall, it is
important to note that all our macro factors such as interest rates, WPI and
CPI Data, IIP data, etc., are very much in place. We are certainly to
outperform the global peers while reacting to these Greece happenings. However,
in the process volatility is something that we will see remaining ingrained in
our Markets. It is continued to be advised to stay away from aggressive positions
and maintain liquidity while continuing to maintain cautious optimism in the Markets.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
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