Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, June 29, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                       June 29, 2015

Markets continued to consolidate on Friday as it opened flat, lost ground during the day but recovered to end the day with just modest losses. The Markets saw a quiet opening and formed its intraday high of 8408.55 in the early minutes of the trade. However, soon after this the Markets slipped into the negative territory. After recovering a bit it got weaker in the afternoon trade as it went on to form the day’s low of 8339.70 by afternoon trade slipping nearly 70-odd points from the high point of the day. However, the second half of the session some recovery coming in and at one point of time the Markets recouped all of its losses to trade briefly in the green. However, it came off a bit and finally ended the day at 8381.10, posting  a modest loss of 16.90 points or 0.20% while forming a lower top but higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, JUNE 29, 2015

Today, though the Markets have consolidated over previous three sessions, today’s trade is going to be squarely dominated with Greek Crisis. Today’s opening is set to be a gap down opening following the drama over weekend. The Markets are likely to open on a gap down basis following this and look for further directions in the second half. The gap down opening may not be as bad and the Markets may find support near the 8080-8300 levels and may take further cues from there.

For today, the levels of 8300 and 8250 are immediate support for the Markets.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 59.0975 and it has reached it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Weekly Chart, the Weekly RSI is 50.9005 and this too remains neutral without showing any bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Weekly MACD is bearish as it currently trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY July futures have shed 47,250 shares or 0.34% in Open Interest. This is a very nominal figure and we can safely conclude that there has been no major change in any directional bias in the given session.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have pulled back from the double bottom it formed near 7950-8000 levels. As often mentioned in our previous editions of the Daily Market Trend Guide, the Markets also moved past its falling trend line resistance of 8280-8300 levels. The level of 50-DMA also nearly coincides with that. The Markets have been consolidating at these levels over previous three sessions and in normal circumstances it would have resumed its up move from there. However, the reaction of Greek Crisis will have it open on a lower side again and it is expected to take support near 8280-8300 levels initially.

Given the global development, the Markets will be dominated with the events in Greece.  Following the gap down which looks imminent, the Markets are expected to take support near 8280-8300 levels initially. Though external factors will dominate the technical indicators, Asia is set to see a very limited directed impact of this. Retail investors are advised to remain away from this high volatile drama and advised to maintain adequate liquidity. This downside may also be used to make limited selective purchases.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com