MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
May 9, 2012
Phenomenal shorts were created the last hour and half of
trade where in the Markets saw sudden weakness creeping in as it ended the day
with significant losses on average volumes. The Markets opened on a negative
note as expected but later recovered in the late morning trade to trade almost
flat. However, in the second half of the session, the weakness crept in again
and it intensified in the last hour of the trade as the Markets went on to give
the day’s low of 4983.60. It finally ended the day at 4999.95, posting a loss
of 114.20 points or 2.23%. While adding huge short positions, it has formed a
Parallel Bar on the Daily High Low Charts.
The Markets have weakened due to external pressure exerted
on it and more because of non-technical grounds and the coming off of the
Markets after closing a notch above 200-DMA post bounce back is a ample
indicator of that. Today also, the Markets are expected to open moderately
lower and remain volatile heavily dependent on the intraday trajectory it forms
post opening.
Today, the levels of 5045 and 5120 are immediate resistance
on the Charts and the levels of 4970 and 4955 are immediate supports.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
32.5927 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish.
However, it shows no negative divergence. The Daily MACD continues to trade
below its signal line.
It would be important to note that yesterday’s session has
added phenomenal Open Interest indicating huge creation of shorts in the
system. Nifty May 5000 Put added more than 2.5 lakh shares while Nifty May 4900
Put has seen addition of whopping nearly 11 lakh shares in open interest (OI).
Even 4800 put added close to 10 lakh shares in OI. Nifty May 5200 Call added
close to 5 lakh shares in Open Interest indicating short term resistance for
the current series. NIFTY Futures added massive 9.43% or 17.43 lakh Shares in
the Open Interest.
Further to this, on the
candles, An Engulfing Bearish Pattern has occurred. If the engulfing
bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case
with NIFTY), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish
reversal. The test to see if this is the
case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle's
real body.
Due to the factors mentioned above, even if the
Markets show initial weakness and further weakness shall take it to nearly
Oversold levels and given this huge shorts, may find support anytime. We
strongly advise the retail investors to remain light and avoid any kind of
aggressive positions and especially avoid shorts. It may happen again that the
Markets improve as we go ahead in the session. Overall, cautious outlook is
advised for today.
Milan
Vaishnav,
Consulting
Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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