Friday, May 11, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, May 11, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                        May 11, 2012
The session remained a disappointing one yesterday as the Markets failed to capitalize on the positive and strong opening it got as it pared all of its gains to finally end the day with negligible loss and consolidate on the Close Charts. The Markets gave a strong opening today and though it traded in the capped range, it did gave its intraday high of 5039.30. Just when it seemed that Markets will stage a pullback, it suddenly and sharply pared all of its gains in a peculiar fashion and pared all of its gains and dipped into the negative as it gave its day’s low of 4950.30. It recovered a bit from there and finally ended the day at 4965.70, posting a nominal loss of 9.10 points or 0.18%. It formed a higher top but slightly lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

 Today expect the Markets to open on a mildly lower note and likely to recover and improve post opening and thus remain volatile and directionless throughout the session and is likely to consolidate at Close levels like yesterday. The opening is likely to take the Markets into OVERSOLD zone and thus turn volatile depending on the intraday trajectory again. Today, the bias would remain towards improvement as we go ahead in the session.

The levels of 5025 and 5080 are immediate resistance on the Charts and the levels of 4940 and 4925 are immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 30.8158 and it is nearly OVERSOLD. Though it has reached its lowest value in l ast 14-days, it does not show any negative divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain below its signal line. 

The lead indicators are nearly OVERSOLD, NIFTY has huge short positions outstanding and the NIFTY PCR is 0.89 which too is nearly OVERSOLD. Any opening weakness will take the Markets again to its OVERSOLD territory and we may see volatility returning in the Markets.  Further to this, on the Candles, An Engulfing Bearish Pattern has occurred. If  the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with NIFTY), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal.  The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle's real body.

Overall, the reading for the Markets remain more or less to same what is being written since two sessions. The Markets will remain volatile, but may continue to consolidate at close levels and have a bias towards upside as per technical factors and also as per the F&O statistics which indicate huge built up of short positions. Further to this, the Markets shall also react to the IIP Numbers coming in. We continue to advise the retail investors to remain light, avoid aggressive positions in the Markets while protecting profits on the existing positions. Other positions may safely be held on to. Overall, caution with tinge of optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331

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