Thursday, May 10, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, May 10, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                 May 10, 2012
The Markets today remained heavily volatile moving in either direction and finally ended with nominal losses as the Rupee remained under constant pressure and Greece political uncertainty continued to cast cloud over the overall sentiments. The markets opened negative on expected lines but soon in the morning trade saw itself recovering and moving into the green to give the day’s high of 5016.25. After moving in a capped range, it suddenly lost ground to pare all of its recovery. With volatility at its maximum, it again saw a very smart recovery in the later part of the session but lost ground again to dip into the red. It finally ended the day at 4974.80, posting a net loss of 25.15 points or 0.50% amidst low volumes. It has formed a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today, we can expect a modestly positive opening in the Markets and we can see some respite coming in from the artificial pressure that we have been witnessing in last 2-3 sessions. However, with the modestly positive opening expected, it would be critical to see if the Markets are able to capitalize on this and for this, again, intraday trajectory would be important.

The levels of 5020 and 5075 are immediate resistance levels on the Charts and the levels of 4950 and 4930 are immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 31.2942 and it has reached the lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. However, it does not show any bearish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain below its signal line.

NIFTY futures have shed nominal open interest whereas stock futures have continued to add another 1.5 crore shares in Open Interest. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.97 as against 0.94.

All and all, reading for today’s Markets remain more or less similar to that of yesterday. The Markets may remain dominated with external news flows and remain jittery and volatile. But, given the lead indictors and F&O data, the down side can be limited and also, any weakness will take the Markets nearly Oversold.

Overall, given the above reading, we continue to maintain our advise that the retail investors should refrain from taking aggressive positions and shorts should be strictly protected. Very selective purchases should be made and profits should be very vigilantly protected. Overall, cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


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