MARKET REPORT February
11, 2015
The session yesterday remained precisely as per the levels
analysed in the previous edition of Daily Market Trend Guide as the levels of
8640 acted as stiff resistance for the Markets. Markets snapped its 7-day losing
streak and ended with modest gains but saw huge amount of violent volatility
during the day. With the AAP winning absolute majority nearly discounted by the
Markets, it saw a negative opening initially but soon traded positive. In the
morning trade, the Markets saw good amount of strength coming in as it went on
to post robust gains marking the levels of 8646.25 as the intraday high. Again,
as analysed, this levels acted as resistance and Markets lost very rapidly from
this levels. It went on to pare all of its gain and traded negative losing over
175-odd points from the intraday high making a low of 8470.50. Some sharp
recovering was seen again and it finally ended the day at 8565.55, posting a
net gain of 39.20 points or 0.46% while forming a lower top but higher bottom
on the Daily Bar Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2015
Today, we can expect the Markets to start on a quiet note
and look for directions. To the maximum probability, the Markets have attempted
to find bottom yesterday and are not likely to test yesterday’s low again even
if it continues to consolidate. On its way up, the levels of 8640 will be
important levels to watch out for as it will continue to pose resistance at
higher levels.
The levels of 8640 and 8695 will act as immediate resistance
for the Markets. The supports will come in at 8470 and 8448 levels which is the
50-DMA for the Markets.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
47.8776 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any
failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bearish as it continues to trade below
its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY February futures have
over 1.37 lakh shares or 0.56% in Open Interest. This change is insignificant
so far as OI is concerned but it certainly conveys that no major unwinding has
been observed yesterday while the Markets pared its gains and short covering
caused the last hour pullback.
Returning to pattern analysis, the Markets nearly tested its
50-DMA yesterday and also perfectly resisted to the 8640-level as well. This is
the support which the Markets broke on the downside and while on its way up it
will continue to pose resistance. For the Markets to move up again and resume
its original trend it will have to move past this level and until this happens,
it is likely to consolidate and move in a trading range with some amount of
volatility ingrained in it.
To sum up, though the Markets have clearly attempt to find a
bottom yesterday it is not completely out of woods until it moves past the 8640
levels again with conviction and good participation. Until this happens, it is
likely to oscillate in a trading range in volatile manner. Though this is no
structural breach on charts, moving past 8640 will be crucially important for
the Markets. Refraining from over-exposure and cautious optimism is advised for
the day.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
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