MARKET REPORT February
09, 2015
Weak technicals continued to keep the Markets in the
corrective mode on Friday as well as it ended sixth straight day of looses.
Caution ahead of Delhi polls outcome also weighed on the sentiments of the
Markets while it ended the day with modest losses. The Markets saw a quiet
opening on expected lines and it also traded briefly into the positive in the
morning trade. After marking 8726.20 as the intraday high, the Markets gently
slipped into the negative in the later morning trade. It overall remained in a
downward trajectory. It did made an feeble attempt to recover in the afternoon
trade wherein it traded flat after recouping all of its modest losses but
weakened again in the late afternoon trade. It went on to form the day’s low of
8645.55 and finally ended the day at 8661.05, posting a modest loss of 50.65
points or 0.58% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar
Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 09, 2015
Monday’s session is likely to be a acid test for the
Markets. So far, the Markets have been trading precisely as analysed and
expected in the previous editions of Daily Market Trend Guide as it did test
the levels of 8640. The opening of the Markets would be crucial, which would be
quiet as such. The behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 8640 will
decide the trend of the Markets in the immediate short term.
The levels of 8710 and 8765 will act as resistance levels
for the Markets. The supports would come in at 8640 and 8550 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.8259
and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. Also, the
RSI has formed a fresh 14-period low whereas NIFTY has not yet and this is
Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD remains bearish trading below its signal
line. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 63.8525 and it remains neutral
showing no failure swings or any bullish or bearish divergence. The Weekly MACD
remains bullish trading above its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY February futures have
added over 1.29 lakh shares or 0.52% in Open Interest. This is a moderate
change but the importance of this figures is that no unwinding of positions is
seen at these levels on Friday.
Taking a cue from pattern analysis, the Markets have tested
the levels of 8640 precisely on expected lines. This is a important pattern
support for the Markets. It would be crucial for the Markets to maintain levels
above 8640 in order to avoid weakness. The behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis this
level would be crucially important in the coming days.
Overall, apart from technical reading, the outcome of the
Delhi Polls will also weigh sentimentally for the Markets. The BJP not
performing well will not go down well sentimentally with the Markets it will
now start doubting the present Government’s actual capability to deliver
growth. Keeping all this in view, we are of very clear opinion to keep away
from any aggressive stance on either side until Tuesday, when the actual
results come out. While keeping overall exposure in absolute control, highly
cautious and stock specific approach is advised for the day.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
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