Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesay, February 25, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                             February 25, 2015

The Markets had a very flat and range bound session and it ended the day with minor gains after spending the entire session in sideways trajectory. The Markets saw a quiet and flat opening on expected lines as it opened modestly positive. Post this modest opening, the Markets continued to spend the first half of the session in a much capped range in sideways trajectory while going briefly into the negative zone couple of times. The afternoon trade saw some up move while the Markets formed the day’s high of 8800.50 but these levels were not sustained as the Markets pared those gains and traded flat again. It further dipped into negative and soon formed the day’s low of 8726.75. Once again, some recovery was seen and the Markets finally settled the day at 8762.10, posting minor gains of 7.15 points or 0.08% while forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2015

Today, expect the Markets to open on a positive note and trade positive at least in the initial trade. We also enter into penultimate day of expiry of current February series and we would see the trading session continuing to remain dominated with rollover centric activities. The Markets are more or less likely to remain in a ranged consolidation in this heavily eventful week comprising of derivative series expiry, Railway Budget, Economic Survey and finally the Union Budget.

For today, the levels of 8820 and 8875 would act as resistance and the levels of 8726 and 8640 would act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 54.8950 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD remains bearish while trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY February series shed over 38.24 lakh shares or 23.15% while March series added 51.17 lakh shares or 49.92% in Open Interest. NIFTY rollovers and Market wide rollovers have been above its 3-months average and buying from lower levels have been observed. NIFTY PCR stands at 0.85.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have remained in a rising channel but after the decline on Monday, 23^rd of February; it has shown signs of mild weakness after some consolidation. It has formed, what is called in technical jargon, a “inadequate rise”, i.e. a top lower than its previous top which is its lifetime highs. Such formations either tend to alter the intermediate trend, or at least keeps the Markets in consolidation for some more time.

Overall, we continue to keep the analysis on the same lines. Until the Markets moves past 8900 levels, there will be no run-away rise in the Markets. The Markets would continue to oscillate in a broad trading range with the levels of 8640 acting as a major support. Though there will be no directional bias so long as it trades above 8640, the volatility would remain ingrained in the Markets. It is advised to continue to keep exposures at moderate levels, protect profits and approach the Markets with a cautious outlook today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com