MARKET REPORT February
27, 2015
Markets grew extremely cautious ahead of Budget and grew
equally volatile on the expiry day yesterday as it ended the day on a bearish
note with losses. The Railway Budget which came up failed to provide any cheers
to the Budget as it continued to elevate its caution levels ahead of Union Budget
tomorrow. After opening on a mildly negative note, the Markets traded sideways
with some amount of capped losses in the morning trade. While the Railway
Budget started, Markets saw some more weakness creeping in and by late
afternoon trade it went on to form the day’s low of 8669.45. Markets did see
some amount of recovery happening in the final hours of the trade and it did
manage to recover major part of its losses but the last thirty minutes of the
trade again saw the Markets paring that recovery. It finally ended the day at
8683.85, posting a net loss of 83.40 points or 0.95% while forming a lower top
and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2015
Today, expect the Markets to open on a mildly positive note
and trade stable at least in the initial trade. We can expect some amount of
stability coming in but at the same time, high and elevated amount of caution
would continue to dominate the Markets. It would not be surprising if the
Markets tests its important supports of 8610-8640 levels. However, at present,
it trades near its important pattern support and this can lend some stability
to the Markets.
The levels of 8780 and 8830 would act as resistance for the
Markets. The supports would come in at 8640 and 8610 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
49.0991 and it remains neutral without showing any bullish or bearish
divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD remains bearish trading below
its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY March futures have begun
by adding over 42.18 lakh shares or 21.34% in Open Interest.
At this
point, it is important to take note of some derivative figures suggest creation of
huge shorts by the FIIs. FIIs have
built short positions worth about Rs 10,500 crore in Nifty stock futures in
February, according to exchange data. FIIs, which were net long to a tune of
about Rs 7,000 crore in NIFTY Futures in January, have been seen reversing their
positions in February. They created net short positions worth Rs 3,250 crore
during the month. In stock futures, FIIs created net short positions worth Rs
7,200 crore in February.
Returning to pattern analysis,
the Markets continue to trade above all of its three moving averages and above
its important pattern supports of 8610-8640 range. The current structure of the
Charts continues to put the Markets in a broad consolidation phase while
keeping its overall up trend intact.
Overall, we again continue to
keep the overall analysis on the same lines. While there is still no structural
breach on the Charts, elevated amount of caution is certainly reflected on the
Charts as the Markets approaches the Union Budget with utmost amount of
caution. We have extended trading week this time with the Markets open
tomorrow. While keeping the overall technical structure of the Markets in view,
it is advised to continue to approach the Markets with cautious outlook for
today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
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