MARKET REPORT September
30, 2014
The Markets had an extremely volatile session as the Markets
moved more than 100-odd points on either side before ended flat with nominal
gains. The Markets opened on a quiet note and traded in capped range until the
RBI Credit Policy was announced later. RBI, absolutely on expected lines, kept
all key rates unchanged. Though the RBI Credit Policy remained a non-event, the
Markets gathered strength after that. It saw a sharp upward move and went on to
form the day’s high of 8030.90 by afternoon trade. However, severe volatility
crept in as these levels were not sustained. The Markets saw near-vertical
paring of gains. The Markets came off completely from its highs, dipped into
negative and formed day’s low of 7923.85. Some recovery was seen after that and
the Markets finally settled the day at 7964.80, posting a nominal gain of 5.90
points or 0.07% while forming a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily Bar
Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 01, 2014
The analysis for the Markets remains more or less on similar
lines. The Markets are expected to open on a quiet note and are likely to trade
overall in a capped range. Volatility shall remain ingrained in the session.
However, there are little chances of the Markets giving a run-away rise as
tomorrow remains last trading day of the Week. The Markets shall remain closed
on Thursday (Gandhi Jayanti), Friday (Dussera) and on Monday on account of
Bakri ID. So, after Wednesday’s session, the Markets would only re-open on
Tuesday.
The levels of 8010 and 8035 would act as resistance and the
supports are expected to come in at 7898 and 78185 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
48.4132 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences or
any failure swings. The Daily MACD continue to remain bearish as it trades
below its signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY October futures have added
over 1.97 lakh shares in Open Interest. This signifies that some fresh short
positions are seen being created in the system.
Returning back to pattern analysis, the Markets have
continued to remain in a broad trading range and therefore would continue to consolidate
with upward bias so long as it maintains itself above its 50-DMA levels at
Close. If the Markets breach these levels, it would invite some more weakness
and would see itself entering a intermediate downtrend. However, until this
happens, it would continue to consolidate with quite good amount of volatility
in a broad range.
Overall, keeping this mind, the Markets would continue to
see stock specific and sectoral out performance. Even if the Markets see some
mild up moves, it is advised to continue to keep leverage under control and
overall exposure limited. There are also chances that the Markets see some
profit taking at higher levels, especially due to mini-vacation that is ahead.
Overall, continuance of cautious outlook with selective but limited exposure is
advised for the day.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
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