MARKET REPORT September
26, 2014
The Markets had a terribly volatile session on Friday
wherein it succumbed to selling pressure in the first half of the session but
recovered and ended the day with gains on back of S&P upgrading India’s sovereign
rating to stable. The Markets opened on a mildly negative note and after
initially trading in the negative surged to trade with modest gains. However,
the Markets witnessed selling pressure returning after that and by mid
afternoon trade had came off nearly 100-odd points from its initial intraday
high to touch day’s low of 7841.80. However, it saw a sharp turnaround in
reaction to S&P’s rating upgrade and
the Markets literally reversed all of its direction. It rose some 140+ odd
points from its intraday low of 7841.80. It went on to post day’s high of
7993.30. It finally ended the day at 7968.85, posting a net gain of 57 points
or 0.72% while still forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar
Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2014
Expect the Markets to open on a flat to mildly positive note
and continue with its up move. Over and above technical possibilities of the
Markets continuing to pullback, it has held on to its support of 50-DMA at
Close levels. The intraday trajectory of the Markets and close above the levels
of 7885 would be important in order to avoid any further weakness from creeping
in. However, volatility and some more corrective pressure at higher levels
cannot be ruled out.
The levels of 8010 and 8040 would act as immediate
resistance and the levels of 7885 and 7818 would act as supports.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
48.6387 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences or
failure swings. The Daily MACD still continues to trade bearish, below its
signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 66.2126 and it has just crossed
below from a topping formation which is bearish. The Weekly MACD has reported a
negative crossover and is now bearish as it trades below its signal line.
On derivative front, the NIFTY October futures have added
over 6.30 lakh shares or 4% in Open Interest. This shows that apart from sharp
short covering from lower levels, some fresh addition of longs too have been
reported.
Returning again to pattern analysis, the Markets have so far
held on to two things. One, resisting at upper boundary line of the broadening
formation and second, the levels of 50-DMA at Close on the downs side. In the
coming week, the Markets will more or less remain in range and are not likely
to give a runaway rise or any steep downfall as such as well. The overall
activities would remain in a broad trading range with good amount of volatility
ingrained in it.
Overall, reading the Weekly Chart as well, the Markets have
formed an immediate top and so long as it maintains a Close above the levels of
7885, it would continue to remain in trading range. However, with no structural breach on the
Charts, shorts too should be avoided and on the other hand all profits should
be protected at higher levels. While continuing to remain selective, cautious
outlook is continued to be advised.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.