MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
January 15, 2013
The levels of 5950-5945 on which the Markets took support a
day before continued to hold as the Markets opened on a positive note yesterday,
remained buoyant for the entire session and even perked up further up towards
the end to end the day with decent gains. The Markets opened on a moderately
positive note and it trade sideward with capped gains for a brief time in the
morning trade. The Markets rose as it formed a rising channel and remained in
the upward rising trajectory for the entire session. In the last hour of the
trade, the Markets gained further ground as it went on to give the day’s high
of 6036.90. The Inflation numbers which came little lower and therefore better
than expected acted in favor of the Markets. The Markets finally ended the day
at 6024.05, posting a decent gain of 72.75 points or 1.22% while forming a
higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, expect the Markets to open on a flat to mildly
positive note and look for directions. Technically speaking, since the Markets
have ended the day near the high point of the day, they are expected to
continue with the up move, at least in the initial trade. However, there are
chances that it opens flat and consolidates a bit before it attempts to move
past the levels of 6042-6050 which is the upper end of the trading range.
The levels of 6050 and 6095 shall act as immediate
resistance for the Markets and the supports come in lower at 5990 and 5950
levels.
The lead indicators point towards mild possibility of a mild
an brief consolidation. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
64.3570 and it does not show any failure swings. The NIFTY has set a new
14-period high but RSI has not and this is Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD
still continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.
On the Derivative front, NIFTY January Futures have added
over 2.30 lakh shares or 1.47% in Open Interest which is a positive sign.
Give this reading of the lead indicators along with the
derivatives data, there are mild chances that the Markets would consolidate
before it breaks out and move past the levels of 6050. However, the bias remains
on the upside as the trend remains intact.
All and all, as the Markets still continues to remain in a
range it will have to move past the levels of 6045-6050 comprehensively to
achieve a breakout. There are mild chances that we see some brief consolidation
period, but with an upward bias. So, while strictly avoiding shorts, longs
should be continued to be taken
selectively while protecting profits at higher levels. Selective approach with
cautious optimism is advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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