MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
January 14,
2013
The session on Friday remained with that of mixed
performances as even after over 16% rise in INFY, the NIFTY still continued to
shed weight for the entire session to end the day with modest losses. Had that
been not because of gains in INFY, we would have seen further deep cuts in the
Index. The Markets opened on a positive and stronger note and gave its intraday
high of 6018.85 in the very early seconds of the day. Thereafter, it
immediately transformed itself into falling channel and remained in such
trajectory for the rest of the entire session. The Markets kept paring gains
and towards the end, even went on to dip in the red to give the day’s low of
5940.60, testing its very important support levels. It finally ended the day at 5951.30, posting a modest loss of
17.35 points or 0.29% forming a higher top but moderately lower bottom on the
Daily High Low Charts.
Today’s session is likely to turn out to be a very important
session for the Markets. A moderately positive opening is expected but. It would be critically important for the
Markets to maintain the levels above 5950 in order to avoid further weakness.
The intraday trajectory would be therefore important and the behaviour of the
Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 5950 would be critically important.
For today, the levels of 6020 and 6045 would continue to act
as immediate resistance levels and the levels of 5950, and 5910 shall act as
immediate supports.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
56.3683 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergences or failure
swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its
signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY January Futures have
continued to shed over 4.06 lakh shares or 2.52% in Open Interest and this is
certainly not a good sign for the Markets. The NIFTY PCR stands unchanged at
1.04. It would be critically important to see if we see fresh buying coming out
at these levels later today.
As mentioned earlier, the Markets have taken support at 5950
at Close levels. These are the levels from where the Markets made an upward
breakout after resisting for couple of weeks. It would be therefore important
for the Markets to take support at these levels. Any movement below this can
inflict further short term weakness in the Markets. Today, the Markets are also
likely to react to the Inflation numbers coming in and also to the TCS numbers
which are slated to come out later today.
All and all, the Markets still remains critically poised.
Though there is no any break down on the Daily Charts, maintenance of certain levels for the Markets as mentioned
would be critically important. It is advised to still continue to refrain from
shorts and at the same time remain ultra selective while taking fresh
positions. Over exposure should be avoided. Cautious outlook is advised for
today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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