MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
December 24, 2012
The Markets continued with its disappointing performance,
even on Friday as it continued to drift further down to end yet another day
with losses. The markets opened on a negative note and remained in negative
territory throughout the trading session. After opening on a negative note, the
Markets traded with capped loses in the morning trade. However, in the second
half of the session, further weakness crept into the Markets as it drifted
further down to give the day’s low of 5841.55. No significant recovery was seen
as the Markets ended the day at 5847.70, posting a net loss of 68.70 points or
1.15%. It formed a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
The Markets have still continued to remain in a broad range
of 5720-5950 and still continues to remain in this range. For today, we can
again expect a flat to moderately positive opening in the Markets. The trend
thereafter would depend heavily on the intraday trajectory and the rollover
activities as w e enter expiry week today. The week is truncated with tomorrow
being a trading holiday on account of Christmas.
With the Markets continuing to remain in abroad range, for
today, the levels of 5900-5940 shall continue to act as immediate resistance.
The supports are expected to come in at 5810 and further down at 5860 levels.
The lead indicators for the Markets are neutral to bearish.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 53.5913 and it has
reached its lowest value in last 14-days. This is bearish. It does not show any
bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it
trades below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 64.5562 and is neutral as it does
not show any bullish or bearish divergences or failure swings. The Weekly MACD
continues to trade above its signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY December Futures have shed
over 40.55 lakh shares or 20.65% in Open Interest. However, this figures
presents incorrect pictures as rollovers have begun. However, still net
shedding of OI is reported. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.03 as against 1.08.
Global Markets would stand affected due to no agreements
being reached on Fiscal Cliff issue. However, speaking purely on technical grounds,
our Markets will continue to remain in a range. Further weakness would creep in
if we breach the levels of 5920 on the Daily Charts.
All and all, this being truncated week, the Markets are more
or less likely to remain in a broad trading range. While avoiding shorts in the
Markets until clear breakdown is there, selective purchases may be made while
protecting profits very vigilantly. Neutrally cautious outlook is advised for
today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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