MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
December 27, 2012
The Markets had a buoyant session yesterday as it once again
attempted to reach the upper end of the broad trading range that it has been
trading in. The markets opened on a positive note, perked up further in the
second half of the session and ended the day with decent gains. The markets
opened on a positive note and after opening, traded positive in a sideward
trajectory for some time. However, it perked up further. It went on to give the
day’s high of 5917.30. It hovered around those levels for the last hour of the
trade and finally managed to end the day at 5905.60, still posting a decent
gain of 49.85 points or 0.85%. It has formed a higher top and higher bottom on
the Daily High Low Charts.
Markets are poised once again at a critical juncture today.
Today is the expiry day of the current derivative series. Also, expect a flat
to mildly positive opening in the Markets today. With the Markets expected to
open around the upper band of the broad trading range that the Markets have
been trading in, the trajectory that the Markets forms after opening would be
very critical and crucial to decide the trend for today.
For today, the levels of 5940 and 5975 shall act as critical
resistance for the Markets and the levels of 5860 and 5810 shall act as
immediate supports.
The lead indicators still continue to remain neutral to
mildly bearish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 59.9811
and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure
swings. The Daily MACD, however continues to remain bearish as it trades below
its signal line.
On the derivative front, total NIFTY Futures have shown a
mild shedding in total Open Interest. This signifies that it was some amount of
short covering that led to the buoyancy yesterday. The NIFTY PCR rose to 1.12
as against 1.05.
The Markets are poised at a critical juncture because if it
moves past the levels of 5930-5940, we may see a short term upward momentum in
the Markets. However, global markets are awaiting in larger quantum, some agreement to be reached
on fiscal cliff issue in the US. Any negative outcome, or any lack of outcome
can negatively impact the global sentiments.
Speaking purely on technical terms, any move beyond the
levels of 5930-5940 levels can bring short term upward momentum. If the Markets
do not move past these levels, we may again continue to trade in a broad range
that we have been trading in. Selective approach to the Markets with vigilant
profit protection is advised with a cautiously positive outlook for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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