MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
July 16, 2012
What happened to be a positive beginning in the Markets
turned out to be a flat ending as the Markets continued to remain in a range
and consolidate and the caution reigned ahead of the key inflation data on
Monday and guided RBI Action on July 31st. The Markets opened
positive and gave its intraday high of 5267.15 in the early minutes of the
trade. It continued to trade with capped gains but it saw a gradual decline as
the session went ahead. It saw a sudden dip in the afternoon trade as it went
into the red and gave the day’s low of 5216.85. The Markets again traded in
capped range and finally ended the day at 5227.25, posting a nominal loss of 8
points or 0.15%. It has formed a slightly higher top and slightly lower bottom
on the Daily High Low Charts. On a Weekly note, the NIFTY has ended the week
with net loss of 89.70 points or 1.68%.
The Markets are likely to open today on mildly positive note
and trade in a capped range in the initial session. The key inflation numbers
are expected today and the Markets are likely to react to it which are expected
to be bit higher. This is likely to keep the Markets in a range initially, and
then bit volatile later in the session.
For today, the levels of 5275 and 5310 are immediate
resistance on the Charts and the levels of 5205 and 5170 are immediate
supports.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
53.6878 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish.
The RSI has set a new 14-day low whereas NIFTY has not yet, and this is also a
Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD too has turned bearish as it now trades
below its signal line. On the Weekly note, the RSI is 53.0967 and it is neutral
as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Weekly MACD too is
bullish as is trades above its signal line.
The NIFTY and Stock futures have continued to add in Net
Open Interest in the current series and this certainly has an upward bias.
Having said this, there are two things to consider. The
Markets shall trade this week on a double edged sword. The higher inflation
number may be a bad news for the
Markets, but they increase the chance of a rate action from RBI on July 31st.
The Diesel price hike too is expected after the presidential polls. Secondly, the
Daily charts show the consolidation / correction to continue and the Markets
may touch the 100-DMA levels of 5173. But at the same time, the Weekly Charts
show the technicals and the lead indicators intact with bias towards the
upside.
All these factors combined are likely to keep the Markets in
a broad trading range and volatile with the levels of 5175 - 5170 acting a major technical and pattern
support.
All and all, Markets
are likely to remain in a range and remain volatile too reacting to Inflation
numbers today. With the global cues supportive, the negative technical factors
would be resisted. Even otherwise, there
is no negative breach until the Markets breaches the levels of 5170. Until this
happens, shorts should very strictly be avoided and selective purchases may be
made while protecting the profits at higher levels. Overall, cautious outlook
is advised for today.
Milan
Vaishnav,
Consulting
Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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