MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
July 13, 2012
The Markets had an disappointing session yesterday as the
Infosys numbers further weakened the sentiment which as anyway likely to get
affected by unfavorable technicals. The markets have been having a
contradictory reading on the Daily and Weekly Charts as mentioned in our Monday’s
edition of Daily Market Trend Guide and this has remained responsible for the
jitters that we have seen in the entire week that has gone by. Yesterday, the
Markets opened lower, gave its intraday low of 5217.70 and recovered a bit to end the day at 5235.25, posting a net
loss of 71.05 points or 1.34%. It has formed a sharply lower top and lower
bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, we are likely to see a moderately lower opening in
the Markets, but yesterday’s quantum and
pace of fall is likely to get arrested and we may see some respite from the
weakness that we saw yesterday. The Markets are still within a broad trading
range with no negative breach and we are likely to see a range bound and little
volatile trade today and the intraday trajectory would continue to play a
critical role in deciding the trend.
Today, the levels of 5268 and 5295 shall act as immediate
resistance on the Charts and the levels of 5310 and 5272 shall act as immediate
supports.
The lead indicators show some weakness on the Charts which can be visible in the opening trade.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 51.5392 and it has
reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. Also, the RSI has
given a new 14-day low but the NIFTY has not yet, and this is bearish
divergence. The Daily MACD, however, remains bullish as it trades above the
signal line.
Having said this, this reading has come due to a gap down
opening in the Markets and closing little above the day’s low. Further to this, a lot of fresh shorts have
been initiated in the Markets as this is clearly evident from the rise in Open
Interest in NIFTY and Stock futures.
The Markets are likely to remain in broad trading range.
There is no negative breach on the Charts as yet so no reason on the Charts to
open shorts. At the same time, selective purchases may be made. However,
profits, wherever available, needs to be vigilantly protected. Overall,
cautious outlook with tinge of optimism is advised for today.
Milan
Vaishnav,
Consulting
Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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