Thursday, December 26, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, December 24, 2013



MARKET REPORT                                                                                   December 24, 2013

The Markets continued to remain in a consolidation mood while it continued it rollovers and ended the day on a flat note with modest gains. The Markets opened on a positive note but spent most part of the session in a 25-odd point capped range. The Markets remained very much sideways right from morning trade until later afternoon trade. Post opening modestly positive, the Markets had no directional consensus and thus while remaining sideways, it continued to trade in a very narrow band on lower than average volumes. The Markets saw a mild spurt in the late afternoon trade as it gave its day’s high of 6317.50. It did not sustain this gain at all and pared it equally fast and suddenly while it traded flat, and even dipped into the red for a brief while giving day’s low of 6266.95. It finally ended the day at 6284.50, posting a minor gain of 10.25 points or 0.16% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.



MARKET TREND FOR TODAY


Tomorrow being a trading holiday on account of Christmas, today we enter the penultimate day of expiry of current derivative series. Today, the markets are expected to open on a flat note and look for directions. The directions and trend of the Markets is likely to remain more or less like yesterday as they are expected to trade in a range with lower volumes.


Today, the levels of 6310 an 6345 are immediate resistance levels on the Charts. The support exists at 6260 and 6235 levels.


The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.0769 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line. But it is moving towards reporting a positive crossover in coming days which would be a bullish indicator.


On the derivative front, the rollovers continued across markets as NIFTY January futures added over 52.48 lakh shares or 65.69% in Open Interest.


Going by the technical charts, the Markets are likely to remain in a range bound consolidation while keeping their overall trend intact. Though we may see some volatility creeping in causing sharp movements on either side driven by rollovers, the overall trend remains intact as the Markets have not shown any sign of weakness or any kind of bearish developments on the Daily Charts. 


All and all,  we can expect a flat opening in the markets followed by a range bound trade at least in the morning session. Though intraday trajectory would be important to decide the trend for today, the session would certainly remain dominated with rollover centric activities. While keeping exposures at moderate levels, cautious optimism is advised for today.


Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,



+91-98250-16331






Monday, December 23, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, December 23, 2013

MARKET REPORT                                                                                   December 23, 2013
The Markets staged a smart pullback, much on the lines as analysed in our Friday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide as it opened positive, surged during the session to end the day with decent gains. The Markets opened positive on expected lines and remained range bound with capped gains in the morning trade. However, in remaining session from afternoon until the end, it gained some more strength and surged further. It kept making gradual intraday highs as it went on to give the day’s high of 6284.50. It maintained those levels and finally ended the day at 6274.85, posting a very decent gain of 107.60 points or 1.74% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today, expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive note and continue with its up move, at least in the initial session. The Markets are expected to open positive and it would be important for the Markets to remain positive or else at least consolidate to capitalize on Friday’s pullback. The intraday trajectory would remain critically important. The levels of 50-DMA have so far successfully held out as support at Close levels.

For today, the levels of 6310 and 6345 would act as immediate resistance on the Daily Charts. The supports would exist at 6250 and 6215 levels.

All lead indicators primarily remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.4518 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it still trades below its signal line.  On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is neutral at 59.2557. The Weekly MACD is bullish as it continues to trade above its signal line. 

 On the derivative front, NIFTY showed some rollover activity as the December futures shed over 6 lakh shares or 3.16% in Open Interest while the January futures added over 20.93 lakh shares or 35.50% in Open Interest.

Going by the pattern analysis of the Daily Charts, the NIFTY remains very much in intact structure as it continues to trade above all of its DMAs  while the levels of 50-DMA has successfully continued to act as support at Close levels.  Given this, it should not be a surprise as the Markets continues with its up move and even if it does not, it is likely that it sees some amount of mere consolidation and no major profit taking.

All and all, the undercurrent continues to remain buoyant and there is no likelihood of any major correction coming in. At the most we can see some minor profit taking from higher levels or some amount of consolidation. In the present case, it is strongly recommended that while continuing to avoid shorts, profits in existing positions should be protected vigilantly at higher levels. Overall, continuance of positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331