WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13 THRU NOV 17, 2017
Very much on analyzed lines on our previous Weekly Note, the
meaningful up move in the benchmark NIFTY50 continued to elude us while the
Index marked marginal highs. In the week that has gone by, the NIFTY has
settled with net weekly loss of 130.75 points or 1.25%. The high of the Week
which was 10490.45 resisted precisely to the 22-month long upper trend line of
the rising channel that the NIFTY have formed. In the coming week, we will see
the Markets positively consolidating. In the worst case scenario, the levels of
10200 are expected to act as sacrosanct support. In all likelihood, we will see
the Markets positively consolidating and attempting some up moves. However, the
levels of 10490 will act as immediate serious resistance levels over coming
days.
The important levels on the upside to watch for would be
10450 and 10525. The supports should come around 10200-10150 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Weekly Chart is
65.4097. It remains neutral showing no divergences against the price. The
Weekly MACD is bullish while it trades above its signal line. No significant
formations on Weekly Candles were observed.
It is evident on the Charts that the Markets have resisted
to the 22-month long upper trend line of the rising channel. The levels have
acted as a pattern resistance but given the rising nature of the trend line,
the NIFTY will have ability to continue to give marginal highs. With the levels
of 10200-10150 zones acting as strong support in event of downsides, we will
see the Markets consolidating with a strong positive bias in the coming week.
A study of Relative Rotation Graphs – RRG show that the
METAL pack is steadily losing momentum on the Charts. We may see individual
gains but overall no meaningful up move can be expected in metals. FMCG is seen
consolidating its performance and is expected to relatively perform better.
Strong momentum is seen in PHARMA and MIDCAP universe. REALTY and Small Cap
universe may also attempt to relatively outperform the Markets. ENERGY and Service sector too is seen losing
momentum and no significant performance can be expected from these sectors..
Some outperformance can also be expected from AUTO and INFRA stocks.
Important Note: RRG™ charts show you the relative
strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show
relative performance as against NIFTY Index and should not be used directly as
buy or sell signals.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is
Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory
Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg.
No. INH000003341)
Member:
CMT Association (Formerly Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts, STA (UK)
+91-70164-32277 / +91-98250-16331
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