MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY, SEP 25, 2017
Friday remained a particularly weak day for the Indian
Equity Markets as the benchmark NIFTY50 saw a sharp crack while ending with a
net loss of 157.50 points or 1.56%. We may cite and attach reasons like renewed
geopolitical tensions, or any other such reason but the real problem lied
somewhere else. Ever since the NIFTY marked its fresh high around 10179, there
were evident signs like very high NIFTY PCR (Put to Call Ratio), and one of the
lowest VIX levels which indicated unusual calm and complacency in the Markets.
On Monday, we may see a subdued start to the Markets.
Presently Markets rest below its 20-DMA taking support at its 50-DMA which
rests a 9954. It would be critically important for the Markets to maintain
itself above this level of 50-DMA failing which we might see some more
temporary weakness creeping in. The levels of 9990 and 10045 will act as
immediate resistance levels for the Markets. Supports come in at 9954 and 9860
zones.
The Relative Strength Index –RSI on the Daily Chart is
47.5084. It has made its fresh 14-period low and this is bearish. A bearish
divergence is also observed as the RSI has set a fresh 14-period low while
NIFTY has not yet. Daily MACD is sharply moving towards negative crossover
though it still continues to trade above its signal line. A big black candle
that has emerged has re-validated the zones of 10150-10170 as immediate
resistance zones.
All and all, we also enter the expiry week beginning Monday.
There is high degree of chances that volatility will continue to remain
ingrained. Any slip below 50-DMA will keep Markets subdued for some more time.
For Monday and for rest of the coming days, we will see sessions remaining
highly stock specific with out-performances coming in from select pockets. In
all likelihood, the zones of 10150-10170 have been marked as a temporary top
for the Markets until breached on the upside.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member:
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market
Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA),
CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA),
UK
+91- 70164-32277
/ +91-98250-16331
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