MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 23,
2016
The Markets have continued to remain in a
ranged session yesterday as well while it ended marginally in the red. Today’s
analysis once again continue to remain on similar lines as the markets are
likely to continue to remain in a capped range given the pendency of Brexit
vote which is later today. Today, we can expect the Markets to open on a flat
to mildly positive note and look for directions and the levels of 8260 will
continue to act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The Markets are
not likely to take a definite directional move and will react to the Brexit
outcome tomorrow.
For today, the levels of 8260 and 8295 will
act as immediate resistance levels for today. On the downsides, supports exist
at 8180 and 8140 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the
Daily Chart is 58.8794 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish
divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD still remains bearish as it
trades below its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY June
futures have shed over 13.33 lakh shares or 7.89% in Open Interest. This
clearly shows some reduction in positions yesterday in the system.
Coming to pattern analysis, after forming a
immediate top of 8295 levels, the Markets have now been consolidating in a
broad range since last 12 sessions and have made another lower top, tentatively
at 8260 levels. Having said this, today as well, we will continue to see the
Markets consolidating in the first half of the session. The second session
might remain volatile as participants will try to adjust their trades preparing
for the Brexit outcome tomorrow. Having said this, in event of any downsides,
the likely supports for the Markets can be the rising trend line drawn from the
February lows and after that the 50-DMA. In case of any eventuality, the
Markets may not see any damage beyond this.
Overall, so far as today is concerned, it
is best advised to refrain from taking any major trades today. As always,
exposures to be kept at minimum levels and more emphasis should be laid on
preservation of cash. Shorts to be thoroughly avoided and any dips should be
continued to be utilized to make very selective purchases. Overall, cautious
outlook is advised for today.
Milan
Vaishnav, CMT
Consulting Technical Analyst
Member: Market
Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
+91-98250-16331
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