Monday, April 11, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, April 11, 2016

MARKET TREND FOR Monday, April 11, 2016                                             April 11, 2016

The Markets are expected to open on a quiet note and slightly into negative and look for directions. It has ended slightly below its 100-DMA and is likely to test its important pattern support of 7550 as well and therefore the intraday trajectory that the Markets form would be important to watch out for. Also, the levels of 7550 and the behavior of the Markets vis-à-vis the 100-DMA which is 7566 will be important at Close level as well. There are chances that both of these levels continue to pose resistance to the Markets.

The levels of 7566 and 7615 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 7510 and 7460 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 50.1965 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD stays bearish as it trades below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 47.2070 and this too remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence. The Weekly MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line. However, the histogram slope has shown minor signs of coming down. On the Weekly Candles, a Big Black Candle has occurred. This has occurred near the pattern resistance of a falling trend line drawn from 8600-levels and therefore has added credibility to this resistance levels.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY April futures have shed yet another 43,200 shares or 0.27% in Open Interest. Though this figure may seem insignificant individually, but the Markets have shed significant open interest over last couple of sessions.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have held the pattern resistance of a falling trend line sacrosanct. This trend line is falling and is drawn from 8600 levels. As per today, this poses major resistance to the Markets around 7700-7730 levels. On the lower side, the Markets have held on to its 100-DMA and it’s another pattern support of 7550. Though the Markets have ended the day slightly below 100-DMA it is still within its filter. However, it is important to note that if the Markets breach 7550 on the downside, we will see some more weakness creeping into the Markets.

Overall, the analysis would remain more or less once again on similar lines like that of entire previous week. The Markets will trade in a range with a downward bias and no significant up move shall occur until they move past 7700 levels. Until that happens will see the Markets attempting to take support around 7550 level. Any breach below this will induce further weakness in the Markets. We continue to reiterate to keep fresh purchases limited and adopt cautious outlook on the Markets for today.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331

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