Friday, January 22, 2016

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, January 22, 2016

MARKET REPORT                                                                                      January 22, 2016
Markets failed to capitalize on a buoyant opening and lost ground during the day and ended yet another day with modest losses. The Markets saw a positive opening and after opening on a positive not strengthened further to form the day’s high of 7398.70. However, this remained for a brief time and the markets soon transformed itself into falling trajectory. It gradually kept losing ground and at one point in the afternoon trade, it traded near its previous close after paring all of its opening gains. It slipped further into the red and in the second half of the session formed the day’s low at 7250, coming off nearly 150-odd points from the high point of the day. It attempted recovery and at one point also recovered its losses to trade briefly into the green. However, post some more slippage, it finally settled the day at 7276.80, posting a net loss of 32.50 points or 0.44% while forming a lower top but slightly higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 22, 2016
Today’s analysis continues to remain on similar lines that of yesterday. We can expect a fairly positive start to the Markets but just like yesterday, it would be critically important to see if the Markets are able to capitalize on expected positive opening and build up further gains on that. The lead indicators of the Markets are in “oversold” territory and this likely to aid the Markets give a sustainable pullback.

For today, the levels of 7325 and 7390 are likely to act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports exist at 7250 and 7175 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 29.3675 and it trades in “oversold” territory. It does not show any failure swing but the NIFTY has made a fresh 14-day low while the RSI has not and this is Bullish Divergence. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY January futures have shed over 12.52 lakh shares or 6.02% in Open Interest. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.82 as against 0.83 levels.

While having a look at pattern analysis, the Markets have got oversold after it lost ground once its breached its critical pattern support of 7540. As mentioned often in our previous editions, the Markets will face stiff resistance at 7540 levels as and when it pulls back. Having said this, the Markets have been oscillating with a continuing negative bias in 150-odd points range and currently stand oversold. There are chances of a technical pullback today and the oversold nature of the Markets is likely to aid the same. However, at the same time, it becomes important to note that there is been no respite in massive put buying activity which throws little negative light on the attempts of the Markets to find a bottom and if not this, then it would certainly put a question mark on the sustainability of any technical pullbacks.

Overall, it is evident that though the Markets now currently stands “oversold”, they are not completely out of the woods as yet. Though it has been vigorously trying to find a immediate short term bottom, it has not done so as of now. In light of such technical condition of the Markets, we continue to reiterate our stand of keeping the purchases to restricted quantity and continue to protect profits at higher levels.


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA

+91-98250-16331

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