MARKET REPORT July
08, 2015
Markets spent a cautious session yesterday as it
consolidated on expected lines and ended the day with minor losses. The Markets
saw a quiet opening and soon formed its intraday high of 8561.35 in the early
minutes of the trade. However, soon it pared its opening gains and traded with
modest gains in the initial trade. The Markets continued to move sideways in a
narrow range for most part of the session. It was in the late afternoon trade
that the Markets got weaker and dipped into the negative territory. It went on
to form the day’s low of 8483.85. However, again, some recovery was seen from
these levels and the Markets finally ended the day at 8510.80, posting a minor
loss of 11.35% or 0.13% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the
Daily Bar Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 08, 2015
Markets once again remain today at a critical juncture. Even
with all technical indicators in place, the Markets are likely to open on a
negative note following global weakness. In event of the Markets witnessing a
gap down opening again, it is likely to find itself below its 100-DMA levels.
It would be crucially important for the Markets to maintain support of its
100-DMA at Close levels. In event of the Markets breaching these levels, it may
be seen testing its 200-DMA.
The levels of 8470 and 8410 are immediate supports for
today. Levels of 8550 and 8590 would be immediate support for the Markets.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is
63.9909 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or
failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it comfortably trades above
its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY July futures have further
added over 8.50 lakh shares or over 4.79% in Open Interest. This suggests some
good amount of shorts have been added post yesterday’s high and some fresh
buying too is indicated from these levels. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.13 as
against 1.12.
Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have attempted to move
past its 100-DMA levels after confirming its bottom after forming a higher
bottom at 8195. However, given the rise in the Markets in last couple of
session, it is very much likely that the Markets may consolidate at these
levels. In any case, the levels of 100-DMA, or in little worse scenario, the
200-DMA is likely to act as its major support. Given the technical indicators
and as supported by F&O data, the Markets are likely to have very limited
downside. However, in order to consolidate and avoid any weakness, the Markets
will have to maintain itself above 100-DMA at Close. If this level breaches,
the Markets will find itself consolidating in a little wider range.
Overall, the Markets are likely to see a weak opening but
given the technical indicators and the F&O data, we are again likely to see
improvement as the session progresses. The Markets are most likely to take
support at its 100-DMA at Close levels. If this level breaches, the Markets may
find itself consolidating in a wider range with the levels of 200-DMA acting as
support. However, we strongly reiterate not to short the Markets as the Markets
will have very limited downsides. As usual, while using any initial downsides
as a buying opportunity, cautious optimism is advised for the day.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
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