Daily Market Trend Guide Thursday, 26 March 2015
MARKET REPORT March 25 2015
The markets opened on a slightly positive note
yesterday. But the sluggishness with
bias towards weakness prevailed throughout
the session. The market gave its high in first hour of trade and never
crossed this mark, making it intraday high.
Thereafter, in the second hour, the market did try to cross this levels,
but face selling pressure around the
same intraday high and thereafter market entered into a downward trajectory for
the entire trading session. It did saw some volatility in afternoon trades
registering sharp up move, which met with similarly sharp selling . The market ended almost flat at 8530 with
modest loss of 12 points.
Market spent fourth consecutive trading session within the range
foretold. Sluggishness in the markets can be attributed to the fact the opening
week of the new April F&O series is a shortened week with only three
working days. Market will enter in
decisive trajectory only in the second week of April.
MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY , MARCH 26 2015
The Technicals Analysis Report of Nifty
As evident
from Daily High low chart of Nifty , the market has spent four consecutive days
within the range and have taken support
on important lower line support on Patterns and its 100 Day Simple Moving Average as foretold in earlier
editions of Daily Market Trend Guide.
However, Pattern Analysis of Nifty on Daily High Low
as well Close charts indicate that bias of this ranged market movement is
towards weakness, as during ranged movement, expect on one occasion, the market
has given lower intraday highs. In the same breath, the all important support on Patterns – 8513
and 100 Day Simple Moving Average – have
not been downward breached. Hence, technically, the markets have not given a
sell signal on Patterns as yet.
Analysis of important indicators – MACD and RSI
indicate that MACD continues to be bearish since last 12 trading sessions. The
14 Period RSI continues to give Failure Swings as it has just reached its
lowest value in last 14 days.
In addition to the unbroken supports of the
Patterns and the 100 DMA, another good sign for the markets is exhibited on
Candlestick Charts, where engulfing bearish pattern has occurred. Since it has
occurred during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing
bottom which indicates a bullish reversal.
The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above
the bottom the current (black) candle's real body.
F&O Data Analysis
A day before March expiry, lacklustre activities
were seen. Nifty Futures rollover was reported at 58 %, while Banknifty reported
rollover of 45 % and CNXIT of 19 %.
Percentage rollover means that much percent of contracts were roll
overed or carry forward to next series ,
that is April Series. These roll over percentages are significantly lower
compared to the previous roll over, on the same day, that is a day before
expiry. This indicates reluctance with
regard to bullishness in the near term. However, the final rollover percentages
remains to be seen today- the expiry day.
Change in Open Interest of Nifty in April series
was +53 %, in Banknifty + 25%
Conclusion
The above technicals of Nifty, read along with
F&O data and keeping in view the expiry day today, markets are expected to be dominated by
F&O rollover activity. The market will not turn significantly bearish till
the above mentioned supports are comprehensively breached. Chances of certain amount of volatility
cannot be ruled out.
Rollover or otherwise of F&O positions should
be carried out keeping in mind the above
mentioned supports levels and market behaviour vis a vis these supports and
resistance around 8644 levels.
In wake of weak global clues markets are likely to
open on a ‘ technically dangerous’ note making Open and initial hours of trade
are very crucial today Important levels to be watched today are 100 Day Moving
Average which is 8529 as of today and Pattern support of 8513 levels.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
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