MARKET REPORT April
23, 2014
Markets did not give a fresh break out yesterday, quite on
expected lines as it spent the day in a very narrow and capped range to end the
day flat with very minor losses. The Markets opened on a flat and quiet note
and moved up in the first 30 minutes of the trade to post the day’s high of
6838. However, after this, the Markets remained in downward falling channel all
throughout the session but this channel remained very narrow as the Markets
kept moving in a very narrow 20-odd point band. In the afternoon trade, the
Markets pared all of its gains and traded negative. It recovered a bit but once
again dipped into negative in the late afternoon trade. It finally ended the
day at 6815.35, posting a net loss of 2.30 points or 0.03% while forming a
mildly higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
Today we enter the expiry day of the current derivative
series as tomorrow would be a trading
holiday on account of voting in Maharashtra. Therefore, the expiry would happen
today. Today, we can expect the Markets to open again on a quiet and flat note
and look for directions. The session would remain heavily dominated with rollover
centric activities and there are little chances that the Markets will achieve
fresh breakout today.
For today, the levels of 6840 and 6865 would act as
immediate resistance on the Daily Charts. The supports exist much lower at 6755
and 6710 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
68.0820 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any
kind of failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades
above its signal line.
On the derivative charts, the NIFTY futures have shown a net
decline in total open positions. This implies that the profit taking /
unwinding of some positions have continued. This also becomes evident from the
fact that both NIFTY and market wide rollovers have been on the lower side of
the 3 month average.
Going by the pattern analysis, the Markets have not yet
given a fresh break out on the upside. From the reading above, it is also less
likely that the Markets shall give a fresh break out today. It would move very
swiftly towards “overbought” category with any fresh up move and the lead
indicators too look little weary on the Daily Charts.
All and all, given these facts, it is likely that the
Markets see a subdued opening and the session remains dominated with rollover activities.
There are also chances that the session remains ingrained with volatility and
we might see some paring of positions as well. We continue to advise to have
moderate exposure in the Markets while adopting a cautious outlook for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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